I’ve still yet to see any suggestion whatsoever that the transfer of Basra province was ever expected to be later than the handover is actually going to be. Your continued assertions that a handover date of early 2008 represents an acceleration of 6 - 12 months is completely unsupported by any source, all of which initially expected the handover to complete in Spring 2007.
“The decision to accellerate the build up of IA in Basrah, was not even finalized at the end of Aug. To anyone that knows anything about military planning, that indicates a serious scramble to re-align forces. This was the first announcement of the sudden expansion of Basrah and that 14th was moving up in schedule.”
The article says that General Mohan assessed the situation and resources have been juggled That has also happened in many other areas at various times in response to operational needs. The whole army is being put together in a ‘scamble’ (as your link to the interview with General Dubik amply demonstrates) so that’s hardly a suprise.
I note you don’t quote the section before General Dubik’s reply where General Bergner address the journalist’s implication that the British forces were leaving precipitously:
“To your first point. The British government just very recently their prime minister has come out and said very clearly that they are committed to the mission, that they are engaged here in Iraq, that they are not on a timeline, that they are going to make sure that they achieve the necessary conditions for the Iraqi people and the Iraqi security forces to be successful. And so, I think first of all we have to start with their commitment and their government’s position which has been stated very clearly in the last couple of days.
I think it’s also important to make sure we use some right terminology. What the Coalition forces in Basra are in the process of doing is consolidating some of their forces and handing over facilities to Iraqi security forces to operate from. And so they are consolidating and they are transitioning. They’re not leaving. So there’s a difference there in terminology.”
“Bottom of Page 26: Notice that Basrah is not even mentioned for PIC. Karbala after Ramadan, then Anbar in January. The decision for PIC is not unilateral and Basrah is not reported ready in the official documents...”
This is very disingenous. Petraus doesn’t mention Basra at all, as he is just giving a few examples, rather than an exhaustive list. In the douments you refer to Basra is reported ‘partially ready’ for transfer, exactly the same as Anbar province which, as you say, is currently expected to be handed over at about the same time as Basra is expected to be handed over.
And then some other quotes from people saying that there ‘could’ be problems ‘if’ British forces were removed too quickly without training the Iraqi army sufficiently. Which has been consistently stated won’t happen.
It has become somewhat academic at this point.
The UK is not pulling out as fast as most press reporting has indicated.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1917616/posts
They are augmenting by 850 (Bn’s worth) in to spring and then winding down after. That is what I did not see in previous reporting and it covers the gap while 14th IA Div stands up ahead of schedule.
- By then the Div HQ will be comming allong,
- 1-14 (former 3-8) will be primary,
- the 2-14 (former 5-10) Bde will be a year old,
- the 3-14 will be 3 to 4 months old, and
- (while 4-14 is forming) 3-9 Tank will be assisting.
That is the 6 months I was looking for.
The press has been giving the impression that the UK reductions will start in Dec. When they actually start reductions in late-spring and finish in Jul. That makes much better sense...