Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
...Noel a little stronger as it approaches Hispaniola...
a Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the southern coast of
the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Haiti has
been extended northward to include the entire coast of Haiti.
At 500 PM EDT...the government of Cuba has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch for portions of southeastern
Cuba in the provinces of Granma...Santiago de Cuba...Guantanamo...
and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for Jamaica.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Noel was
located near latitude 16.8 north...longitude 71.9 west or about 125
miles...205 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and about
320 miles...515 km...southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Noel is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph...7 km/hr. A
continued motion toward the north-northwest with a slight increase
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the center of Noel will move near or over southwestern
Haiti tonight.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 60 mph...95
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185
km...mainly to the north from the center.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by the aircraft was
996 mb...29.41 inches.
Above normal tides are likely within the warning areas.
Noel is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over Hispaniola...southeastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with
possible isolated maximum totals of 20 inches. Additional rainfall
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over Puerto Rico during
the next 24 hours. These rains could cause life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...16.8 N...71.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...996 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 28, 2007
earlier today the circulation center reformed closer to the deep
convection and the cyclone strengthened...as confirmed by data from
an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft. The position fixes from the
aircraft have bounced around a bit...but overall the system is
estimated to be moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/4. The
advisory intensity is raised slightly to 50 kt based on SFMR and
flight-level wind observations. The strongest winds are confined
to the area between the circulation center and the southern coast of
Hispaniola...but plenty of rainbands extend well to the east and
south while the southwestern quadrant is mostly convection-free.
Following the center relocation...the global model track guidance
has shifted northeastward toward the HWRF and GFDL which still
provide the easternmost solutions. Nearly all of the models show a
northwestward or north-northwestward motion during the next couple
of days as the mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic weakens
and slides eastward in advance of a short-wave trough moving into
the southeastern United States. Beyond about 48 hours the models
diverge...with the global models forecasting a west-northwestward
jog near or over Cuba...while GFDL and HWRF head northward. The
new official track forecast splits the difference and is nudged to
the right of the previous/special advisory.
Even though Noel has notably strengthened today...it is not clear
how much more intensification will occur. The amount of
interaction with land during the next 2-3 days is still rather
uncertain...but the official intensity forecast indicates
strengthening since the cyclone will be mostly over water if the
official track forecast verifies. It is not out of the question
that Noel could become a hurricane prior to passing over Cuba.
Thereafter...strengthening should be limited by wind shear imposed
by the midlatitude westerlies.
Please note that the pronunciation for the this storm’s name is
nol...with a long o sound and just one syllable...or exactly like
the word knoll.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/2100z 16.8n 71.9w 50 kt
12hr VT 29/0600z 17.9n 72.8w 55 kt
24hr VT 29/1800z 19.1n 74.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 30/0600z 20.2n 75.0w 60 kt...inland over Cuba
48hr VT 30/1800z 21.4n 75.8w 45 kt...over water
72hr VT 31/1800z 23.5n 76.0w 50 kt
96hr VT 01/1800z 26.0n 75.0w 50 kt
120hr VT 02/1800z 29.0n 73.5w 50 kt
$$
forecaster Knabb