Posted on 10/26/2007 10:59:08 PM PDT by neverdem
The interest on $70,000 at 6% is $350/month.
So, it's costing the guy at least $100 more per month for electricity, plus he's out $70,000.
I think I'll wait to install my own solar panels.
Solar power is a lot of hype. It costs more than double what metered power costs by the time you pay for everything, and then just when you THINK you are going to save money on “factory power”, a panel fails and you have to buy a new one.
They only last about 5 years if that.
Sure, you can run a house on solar and windmills, a good battery bank and a back up generator, but it is far more expensive than grid power, and a lot of work.
Plus, none of this is practical for urban living. Nobody would like to listen to their neighbors windmill swooshing away, in fact there are by-laws against them in most laces.
The problem we have is that most of the journalistic class is innumerate, so actually calculating the sorts of things you guys have pointed out is pretty much impossible for them to understand, much less do themselves. As a result, we still get fed all these warm and fuzzy solar power stories.
Not at all. It can done very inexpensively. Any fool can spend $70,000 but it takes a little knowhow how to get the same thing for $5000.
First the disclaimer: I am not a solar buff. Wind is much closer to commercialization, but even wind is still subsidy dependent and solar has considerably farther to go. My preferred clean energy strategy for the immediate future would be to build lots of nuclear power plants.
However, the costs of solar continue to decline and there is a great deal of research underway. The Solar Energy Industries Association reports that photovoltaic installations have been increasing by more than 25% annually over the past decade and more than 35% annually over the last five years. That's a global figure.
Yes, a lot of that is driven by government subsidies, but solar is also beginning to expand into legitimate markets for off-grid applications and a wide variety of low-intensity uses. This is only marginally helpful in terms of the aggregate national power supply, but it is interesting from an industrial policy standpoint because it begins to support an expanding industrial base, which will increase economies of scale and innovation.
Meanwhile, the costs of conventional power continue to increase. Will the trend lines cross? I don't know, but I have moved from being a wind/solar skeptic to being bullish on wind and agnostic on solar. Wind and solar combined currently produce less than 1% of our electricity but a number of states -- not the feds -- are beginning to set much more aggressive targets.
Adding it all up, we will be dependent on coal, natural gas, and nuclear for decades to come, but I would not be at all surprised to wind, and possibly solar, build out to a 10-20% share over the next 20 years. It could be higher if subsidies are increased and/or serious carbon taxes are enacted. In the near term I would expect wind to build out much more rapidly, but in my admittedly layman's opinion, the potential for technological breakthroughs and really significant reductions in manufacturing costs is probably higher with solar.
“”My home is all electric. The electric bill runs $200 to $250/month (less in the spring and fall when we aren’t using heat or ac)
The interest on $70,000 at 6% is $350/month.
So, it’s costing the guy at least $100 more per month for electricity, plus he’s out $70,000.””
There is something else that the guy has to concern himself with...maintenance/replacement on the deep-discharge batteries needed to make solar viable. The sun only shines about 12 hours a day. When it sets, solar panels don’t create electricity. The way most systems handle this is to install deep-discharge batteries which charge up during the day and provide electric at night. The problem is that deep-discharge batteries are expensive and don’t last more than ten years.
I suspect that $15,000-$20,000 of the $70,000 he originally invested was for the deep-discharge batteries. That means he will have to invest the same amount (more with inflation) in about ten years to keep his system operational. One thing I don’t know is what the disposal charge is for spent deep-discharge batteries...but I don’t think its cheap.
I do not expect the price of those type batteries to increase in 10 years. Most likely, as solar power becomes cheaper and cheaper, and regular electricity becomes higher and higher, more people will be buying these systems and prices will come down as technology continues to improve.
Not at all. It can done very inexpensively. Any fool can spend $70,000 but it takes a little knowhow how to get the same thing for $5000.
Solar hot water is practical, even here in far northern New England in the summer.
I built and installed my own system for under $500 3 years ago.
It paid for itself in less than 2 years.
Free hot water from Memorial day to Columbus day this year except for 2 days when it was cloudy for several days when I fired up our System 2000 boiler.
If you can design and build a solar hot water system on your own it can be pretty cheap.
Solar electric is still pretty expensive per amount of energy produced. That will change eventually.
“”Keep in mind, he paid $70k in 2001. The price for these types of systems has come down a lot since then. Plus the tax credits are there to reduce your real cost by around 33%. Also, he is probably getting paid by the local utility for extra energy being used.
I do not expect the price of those type batteries to increase in 10 years. Most likely, as solar power becomes cheaper and cheaper, and regular electricity becomes higher and higher, more people will be buying these systems and prices will come down as technology continues to improve.””
Given the increased price of oil (from $18.00 per barrel in 1998 to $85.00 per barrel in 2007), the cost of large, heavy items will be INCREASING over the next few years...not decreasing. People have gotten used to prices of samll electronics (DVDs, CDs, IPods, etc.) going down but those items don’t require a lot of oil to produce and ship to the customer. Bigger items (solar panels, deep-discharge batteries, etc) consume a lot more oil in the manufacturing/distribution processes. Additonally, the hazardous chemicals in those deep-discharge batteries are environmentally unfriendly. Sooner or later, someone is going to tax them heavily and they will become more expensive.
Remember, over the last 30 years, the technology for car manufacturing has gotten better...but automobile selling prices have done nothing but rise. The same is true with any other large, heavy item (refrigerators, boats, furniture, etc.).
And...lets not even begin to discuss the cost to install the solar panels and battery systems. Those costs are tied to labor costs...and when have labor costs gone down?
Passive solar/thermal solar is proven technology, they are talking solar electric, completely different story.
You are ignoring solar panels are becoming more efficient meaning fewer panels needed. Also, the main reason the panels were so expenses is to recoup start up costs. Once that is done, the prices generally drop considerably (View IPods, IPhones, DVD Players, HDTV prices, Computers, etc).
She did it cause she thought that this would be helpful for AGW - I tease her that any capture of solar energy contributes to AGW, ha!
“”He is selling current back to the grid, so he is on the grid, unlikely to have a battery bank. The $70K investment sounds high - my ex has 48 panels on her roof, claims to have spent only $20k or so - and sells $100 of power back to the grid each month. No batteries. Not a bad ROI. I’m tempted, particularly knowing that electric is only likely to go higher in future. But I’d have to verify her figures.””
For those that do not have batteries, the problem is compounded. Residences use more electricity when its dark out (most folks work in the day and come home at night to their household activities). If this person doesn’t have batteries then he is selling electricity to the grid during the day and buying it back at night. This presents a problem for the utilities...and will lead to electricity being more expensive at night and cheaper during the day. Another problem is that utilities can’t turn electricity on or off quickly. They must maintain “spinning reserve” during times when the demand is low (daytime) and be ready to generate at full capacity less than 12 hours later (nightime). How is this an improvement over the current situation.
I didn’t say it was better for overall energy policy - I’m just reporting an incident where it seems to be a good investment for an individual. I would think that utilities are advantaged by needing less peak capacity during the day (when consumption peaks in the summer). Don’t know the energy use profile during the winter - but it is likely that during the day, more energy is used even then (industrial wheels grinding, stores open, etc.) vs. the night.
Residential use in the evening. Business use during the day. I’d like to see which uses more at any given time. I personally suspect that the power companies are happy to have that power coming in during the day.
I have lived off solar energy for over seven years now. I wrote Exposed; the Solar Energy Con which is available at Amazon.com. This is written from a woman’s perspective and is an accurate representation of what it is like to live off the utility grid. My point is that if you can read it and still support solar you need your head examined.
The country is so focused on solar energy that any one who doesn’t support turning the world into a solar array is an anarchist. I fear that by the time our country wakes up it will be too late.
http://www.rockinblues.com/House/solarenergy.htm
On June 26th 2006 my dog BooBoo died from water intoxication because living on solar energy I was unable to keep him cool. When I began to crunch the numbers I documented the fraud that the environmentalists have perpetrated on the American public. I challenge you to read the information I have put together for you. After you read this, make up your mind for yourself and I urge you to write your legislators.
Thanks for the link. Sorry to read about BooBoo. My dog died a couple of months ago. I had her for 14 years. She was about one year old when I found her.
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