Posted on 10/22/2007 4:50:53 PM PDT by LdSentinal
It’s best to ask Freepers from there what they know.
That’s my prediction and I’m sticking with it.
Ladies and Gentlemen... the Louisiana Farm system in play.
Unless they nuke each other, I expect to see a lot of the future of the LA GOP in this race.
Oh...the the district is suburban-rural. Franklinton is anything but suburban.
“There is a shortage of funds for people who want to come back to rebuild. ...”
Haven’t they already poured enuf state and federal money into NOLA to rebuild two cities?
Is this some sort of sick joke?? 79 years old, Man get a life go fishing!
Well, Treen running again is news to me, but probably not unexpected. He just keeps popping up again and again, who knows why. If he wanted to be useful, he could have run for the Senate in 1996 when it was open and maybe even won the seat, though he’d be getting pretty long in the tooth by now. I wouldn’t be concerned about him. Treen did his part in advancing the GOP cause here in LA, but he seriously should stay in retirement and enjoy life.
Now again, Bobby’s district is my district, so I have a good feel for the goings on here. I would say Scalise is going to run, and he has a good chance to win. He’s got a lot of name recognition down here in Jefferson Parish and it’s no secret he’s had an eye on this race for a while. Now, we will be going to closed party primaries instead of an open primary for federal elections, so strictly the GOP faithful is going to pick the Republican to run for the special election. No Dems or Independents can vote in our primary.
Scalise’s primary competition, if he has any, will probably come from the two Jeff Parish at-large members, Tom Capella and John Young, or Northshore Republicans like St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis or the mayor of Slidell. No RINOs in this bunch that I’m aware of. This race will be decided in the primary. The Dems don’t stand a chance here.
Now, as far as redistricting goes, I imagine Melancon’s seat will probably be the one to go. Throwing in too much of my district could turn the N.O. district competitive, as it lost many Democrat voters. They’ll want to gerrymander some black areas into the second district along the Mississippi River to maintain a black-influenced district. But those areas will likely come out of Melancon’s district. Melancon may end up having to challenge Boustany in the seventh district. That may end up being the outcome, a primarily Cajun congressional district that runs from the Texas border up to maybe Terrebone Parish. Remember, the first district was designed to pack in the GOP areas out of the second and third districts (Melancon’s predescor, Billy Tauzin, then a Democrat, beat a Metairie-area politician named Jim Donelon to win the seat, and the legislature cut Metairie out of his district some years later). They won’t want to let those areas loose to cost the Dems another seat if they can help it.
I get the impression that ultimately the Justice Department will “draw” the lines to accommodate a racist mandate. Republicans do not enjoy the same rights and privileges Democrats do. They should be as free to draw the lines as the rodents were at shutting out Republicans for well over a century+.
Yeah, that’s part of the reason we ended up with that weird Z shaped district that elected Cleo Fields for a few terms. Some Republicans do support these racially gerrymandered districts because it makes the adjoining districts easier to win. Of course, that didn’t stop Democrats from ending up with a 7-6 majority in North Carolina’s congressional districts, even though there are two racial gerrymandered districts there.
I’m amazed we were able to dump the Cleo Fields’ district. You’d have thought it would’ve been enshrined for perpetuity.
In the case of NC, the Dems have the legislature, so we have no say there. Our high water mark was an 8-4 GOP/Dem margin after the 1994 elections. We dropped 2 seats to a tie in ‘96 (we lost the 2nd district needlessly to a rodent because of a personal problem of the incumbent’s, and we lost the 4th because it was generally too liberal for us to hold — the incumbent who was narrowly upended in ‘94 reclaimed it again, that being the odious Dave Price). If we had control of redistricting in the state, we could draw a 10-3 GOP majority (leaving just the 2 Black Dems and the liberal hive in the center of the state centered on Durham/Chapel Hill where Price is). Same in my state of TN, which votes majority GOP, but we hold only 4 of 9 seats. We could draw a 7-2 GOP majority if we won control of the legislature (ceding only Memphis and my district in Nashville to the rodents).
BTW, Fields lost a court battle to be on the ballot in his re-elect bid for state senate, and so found himself out of a job this election cycle.
NC’s kind of a downer. We don’t even contest the Etheridge or McIntyre seats seriously, Robin Hayes is just hanging in there, and I’m still wondering if we can knock off Shuler next year. It’s almost like Arkansas, three Dem seats that could be contested, but we just let them go. Meanwhile, the Dems are picking over any GOP seat they can find that even remotely looks competitive.
And Tennessee has one of the worst examples of packing with the seventh district that drains out the GOP areas out of Tanner and Gordon’s districts. At least Lincoln Davis is thinking of running for governor, which would open up his seat.
Just heartbreaking. ;-D
"NC’s kind of a downer. We don’t even contest the Etheridge or McIntyre seats seriously"
Etheridge is especially galling. McIntyre is supposedly given a pass because he's "more Conservative", but even we shouldn't let that stop us. He's still voting for Pelosi for Speaker, and any Dem that does should be attacked mercilessly in GOP-leaning or marginal districts.
"Robin Hayes is just hanging in there,"
He got through his worst cycle. Remember, the district he is in was designed for him to lose, and he beat the rodents' plan not once, but twice. He should be OK for '08.
"and I’m still wondering if we can knock off Shuler next year."
I think we needed someone from the legislative ranks in that area, but Sen. Tom Apodaca took a pass. FR's own "Congressman Billybob", John Armor, is running, but I told him point blank that if he doesn't raise close to a million dollars, he's not going to pose a threat to Shuler. Although it would be nice to have a FReeper rise to Congress, he has to know he's third tier (second, if he had the $$). At least Charles Taylor spared us a spectacle of trying to run again. He was simply too damaged. It's really a shame, as he put that district previously into the solid GOP column after it had seen a back-and-forth over the years.
"It’s almost like Arkansas, three Dem seats that could be contested, but we just let them go."
Yup, though with 2 of them, they are regarded as "more Conservative", so they don't bother. In the case of the Little Rock seat, that one is clearly occupied by someone to the left of his constituents, but it's still difficult to knock off incumbents.
"Meanwhile, the Dems are picking over any GOP seat they can find that even remotely looks competitive."
Yup, and don't forget they hold more than a few seats that are ludicrously majority GOP (Matheson in UT; Chet Edwards & Nick Lampson in TX, for starters). Conversely, we have almost zero that are similarly heavily rodent (last time we did was after the '94 elections and prior to that in some instances).
"And Tennessee has one of the worst examples of packing with the seventh district that drains out the GOP areas out of Tanner and Gordon’s districts."
Rodent gerrymandering in my state is an art form. You're talking about a gang of thugs that after they saw the state slipping away from them after Baker v. Carr in the mid '60s conspired to disenfranchise the emerging GOP majority. We briefly held 5 out of then-8 seats in 1972 (including the then-near majority Black Memphis district, pre-Ford) and even elected a House Speaker in 1969 when we tied them, but in the case of the latter, that would be the high water mark. We have not gotten that number of House seats in 40 years in the legislature, and as a percentage of the overall delegation, not since, either (although we had 5 out of 9 from 1995-2003). Since 1994 we have had a majority voting preference for Republicans, but aside from the 3 elections afterwards federally, the past 3 elections haven't reflected the will of the people. Same for the House, which has seen a clear majority voting for GOP candidates, many of whom are corralled into hyper-GOP areas with huge turnout, while rodents occupy low-voting areas and others winning by relatively smaller margins. Nashville, which should have close to 40% GOP representation, for example, has 10%. If we got control of the line-drawing in this state, based on the voting patterns of the past decade, we could flip the House from 40-45% GOP to at least 70% (similar to what happened in VA when they busted the gerrymander and got control, but they've been steadily slipping downwards because of their own mismanagement and RINO shenanigans). Aside from the inner-city urban areas, there's no need for a single solitary Dem to hail from any rural or suburban districts, none. That would be a real revolution in this state.
"At least Lincoln Davis is thinking of running for governor, which would open up his seat."
Unfortunately, that won't be until 2010. Davis will have to move to the left to get the nomination in a Dem primary. He'd have an easier time if he switched parties. As it is, Junior Ford is putting out feelers to run, so if the two of them go head to head, it will get ugly. Even more could jump in. I'd say the race is the Republicans to lose, because the outgoing Gov will be the rodent we have now, who has presided over a fairly corrupt administration. Of course, because they're all rodents, the media ignores it. How many states do you know of had 1/3rd of its members in one political body either under investigation, under indictment, on trial, or in prison -- all at once ? We do. And every last one of them is a rodent -- including Junior's uncle. Media ain't interested. If it were Republican... well, you know how it goes.
Man and to think that the House and Senate is already a geriatric ward.
Regarding Treen, I didn’t know Congress is a retirement home. :)
Please tell us where this money is. We'd like to know. A LARGE amount of it has been paid to out of state contractors and never came close to Louisiana soil.
Looking at what Galactic Overlord said on this one, it seems that Treen is getting a bad case of Harold Stassen syndrome or something. Why else would an 80 year old have a sudden urge to be a freshman member of Congress? :-O
Of course the probelm is here is that Treen probably has some descent name recognition and built-in support as one of very GOP governors of Louisiana in modern times. His entry in the primary is likely to muck things up. Jindal was only there for 3 years. We need someone who plans on holding this seat long-term.
The best thing to do here is probably alert Louisiana freepers who might know Treen, and see if they can talk some sanity into him.
I thought you were being sarcastic for a moment there, I know you've chided me before for forgetting. I don't keep a list of names per se, except in my head, and I'm often forgetting somebody. I see your name there, so I did ping you.
"Looking at what Galactic Overlord said on this one, it seems that Treen is getting a bad case of Harold Stassen syndrome or something. Why else would an 80 year old have a sudden urge to be a freshman member of Congress? :-O"
Why wouldn't he ? That's the best place for retirement. Think of all the benefits and perks. Hell, Ted Kennedy and Joe Biden went there to die, and they started out at 30 !
"Of course the probelm is here is that Treen probably has some descent name recognition and built-in support as one of very GOP governors of Louisiana in modern times. His entry in the primary is likely to muck things up. Jindal was only there for 3 years. We need someone who plans on holding this seat long-term."
When Bob Livingston resigned early in 1999, Treen jumped into the race then (just short of 71). He came in first place in the jungle primary special ahead of David Vitter. Vitter beat Treen by only less than 1 1/2% in the runoff. Nailbiter. We might not have Vitter's Senate seat today if Treen had won that race. Jindal wouldn't have ended up in Congress, either (but his presence there was generally acknowledged to keep him in the public eye until which time he could claim the Governorship). Now, I don't think Treen poses as much of a threat today. Even were he to end up in the runoff, it's unlikely he could win. Aside from that first-round win he scored back in 1999, he hasn't won actual office since 1979. Funny thing is, what he could've done in this past election was run for either Lt Governor or Atty General, describing it as his last farewell to LA to serve in such a capacity. Being Lt Gov is little more than being in charge of promoting tourism, something he could've done even at his age, and knocking off Mitchie would've redeemed him completely.
"The best thing to do here is probably alert Louisiana freepers who might know Treen, and see if they can talk some sanity into him."
Well, as I said, it isn't a worry of him winning the office, this is more about preserving his dignity and keeping him from becoming that Stassenesque punchline. I don't think he should end his career with an embarrassing defeat. We've got some top-notch candidates here with State Sen-elect Scalise and the Mayor of Slidell, and those are the ones we need to be focused on.
Treen even ran for governor again in 2003 before he ultimately dropped out, and was rumored to be considering a run in 2007. I don’t know what it is, but he seems to have reacted badly to Vitter beating him in 1999.
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