However, the Soviet Union is still likely to exist since USA would never have been strong enough to challenge the Communists.
Historical what-ifs are more complicated. For instance, Harry Turtledove, the novelist, who makes his living with historical what-ifs, in a CSA victory what-if, has the USA entering WW I on the Central Powers side, with the CSA on the Allied side. This is less implausible than it sounds, since the USA would have been sandwiched in between Canada, still very British, and the CSA, which would have been aligned with Britain as its major trading partner, had its war of independence succeeded.
A Central Power victory, or Germany not so desparate as to use Lenin to disrupt Russia’s war efforts, and there might not have been a Soviet Union at all. (And the Caliph might still sit on the throne of the Sultan in Constantinople so that the Muslims wouldn’t the all out of sorts these days.)
If the CSA hadda won, the USA couldna afforded Alaska and the Brits woulda got it. With the alternative cotton supplies that the Brits had fixed up in the Civil War, the CSA wouldna had the money like before, so it woulda collapsed from its internal contradictions. There’da been a second Civil War, which the USA woulda won; but it woulda probably still have had segregated armed forces in both World Wars....it might even have agreed the Treaty of Versailles and volunteered to get into WW2....on behalf of the Chinese, in 1937. So, no Pearl Harbor.
And u probably woulda got Alaska as the price for financially supporting the Brits from 1915...assuming that we didn’t pick up Hawaii in the 1870s.