The only GOP candidate who could possibly pull the Hispanic swing is Huckabee. The infidelities of both Guiliani and Thompson will be HUGE targets in the runoff and could hurt the female swing big-time, and for all of Romney’s posturing, I think many conservative voters see him as an opportunist (his health plan in MA is a socialist dream and will be a debacle). McCain is a non-candidate to most evangelicals based on his 2000 performance.
Huckabee will be working uphill against the Dems, and some of his positions are not going to endear him to conservatives. His tax increases in Arkansas were based primarily on federal mandates that were unfunded, but he is zealous about some of the health stuff. Still, I think he could politely and populously wipe the floor with Hilliary Clinton’s face in a one-on-one debate and he can articulate ideas in a big way; people genuinely like him and that could go a long way in knocking the wind of Hillary’s cold ‘competence is my virtue.’ That said, it now becomes a question of momentum for him; I don’t know if he’s got any real chance.
It will be a serious election cycle, and the GOP has got their work cut out for them. This is a battle for the soul of the party. But if they decide to ditch the evangelical vote in the interest of political expediency, my feeling they will wash away and you will see a split into two or more parties, ensuring the Dems power into the future. Scary stuff...