Posted on 10/17/2007 12:17:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Republican Caucus for 2008 finds former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney enjoying a six-point lead while former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee are virtually tied for second.
Romney attracts 25% of the vote from Likely Caucus Participants, Thompson earns 19%, and Huckabee is at 18% in the poll. National frontrunner and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani is the only other Republican in double digits at 13%. Arizona Senator John McCain, once considered by some to be the GOP frontrunner, gets just 6% of the vote. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (3%), rounds out the field with Congressmen Tom Tancredo (2%), Ron Paul (2%), and Duncan Hunter (1%). Eleven percent (11%) are undecided (see crosstabs).
However, the race in Iowa is very fluid. For each of the top four candidates, between 57% and 61% of their supporters say they might change their mind before the caucus is held.
Romney and Thompson are essentially even among men, but Thompson attracts only 10% of the vote from women. In fact, Romney, Huckabee, and Giuliani all outpoll Thompson for the female vote.
Huckabee leads among Evangelical Christians while Romney leads among those with other religious beliefs.
Nationally, Giuliani leads the polls in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination with Thompson in second. Thompson is seen as the most politically conservative candidate in the field. However, Romney leads not only in Iowa, but in New Hampshire, scene of the first Primary Election of the season.
Among those likely to take part in the Iowa Republican caucuses, Romney is viewed favorably by 76%, Thompson by 73%. Their unfavorable ratings are virtually identical and the lowest in the GOP field (22% for Romney, 23% for Thompson).
Huckabee is viewed favorably by 64% and unfavorably by 30%. Giuliani gets positive reviews from 68% and negative reviews from 30%.
For McCain, the numbers are dismal. Among Republicans likely to participate in the caucus, 53% have a favorable opinion of the Arizona Senator while 45% have an unfavorable view.
Seventy-five percent (75%) of the likely Republican Caucus Participants say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe that U.S. troops should remain in Iraq until the mission is complete. Nationally, 64% of Americans want the troops out of Iraq within a year.
Fifty-one percent (51%) of Likely Republican Caucus Participants believe the Republicans will win the White House in 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) believe the Democrats will win and 24% are not sure. Democrats are far more confident that their team will win in November 2008.
All polling for caucus events presents challenges in determining who is likely to show up and participate. In conducting and analyzing this survey, Rasmussen Reports reviewed results for many possible levels of turnout. While the results varied modestly depending upon the turnout model, the overall dynamic was the same in all cases—Romney in the lead with Thompson and Huckabee close to each other in second. For example, our overall sample shows Romney with 25% of the vote and a six point lead. When only those who were absolutely certain they would vote, Romney attracts 24% support and leads by two. See information on screening questions and the sample used in this telephone survey.
As long as the leader will uphold and fight for smaller government, I don't give a rusty rat's patoot whether he's "real," "outstanding," or as plastic in appearance and props as Mitt Romney.
And I'd gladly vote for Mitt if he was Small Government -- but alas, like Giuliani, he's a Big Government guy all around. Worse, both Giuliani and Romney are pro-business only with regard to how Big Government can be the primary tool. Underneath their R facade, they're nanny-state liberals. Either would make a lousy Republican president. Leave that crap to the Democrats by voting wisely in the primaries.
Fred isn't perfect, but compared to Romney and Giuliani, he's pretty close to it.
~ BUMP! ~
” don’t give a crap whether Thompson has a whole wall of trophy wives....As long as he has this country’s best interests at heart,and supports our Constitutional rights and freedoms and stands up to our enemies,that’s good enough for me.”
A big ole country boy bump to that!
It could be. She hasn’t been out in the forefront very much, so I guess the press has been setting the tone for how she is viewed. She did Hannity last week and will probably have a higher profile as things progress.
There is still a lot of time. All these people who think every poll is set in stone, when Fred hasn’t even begun advertising yet, really make me laugh.
You have hundreds of millions of options to fit that bill.
I grieves me to say this, but I have heard this from several right-thinking women in my office. It's just so foreign to me.
As is the younger-male demographic leaning to Romney. It must be a metrosexual thing.
You've nailed it. "Metrosexual" is another way of saying "out of touch with nature," IMO. I don't suppose it's anything new. Nor is the phenomenon of men marrying women half their age. In fact, it's been going on for all of written history. There's a difference between Iran, where by law men can marry 9-year-old girls, and anywhere in the free West, where a wily old goat can marry whomever he pleases over the age of 18, and I say, God bless his heart! Good for him, and good for the gal who has him.
I guess right-thinking women aren't immune to their own versions of metrosexuality. By that I mean that men and women are suited to very different roles and expectations, and all of the social engineering in the world won't change it. It's called nature. That is why, to me, the "May/December thing" of Thompson and wife, while interesting, is moot. If anything, it makes me like both a little more. But I'm a romantic.
Well said all around.
I like your new screenname and I like your tag line, too!
Are some women less conservative than these men? I don’t think it’s the “trophy wife” issue, as much as the press likes to play that up. Fred’s ex-girlfriends and ex-wife are solidly in his corner. Can we get some female input?
I think women tend to be more intuitive and have a sense that Fred Thompson’s heart isn’t into this.
Heck, I don’t even think you have to be intuitive to see that — it’s obvious.
Women don’t have that “good ol’ boy” thing that Fred Thompson seems to exude and that men seem to be drawn to - cigar and all.
Well, I want more than a good ol’ boy who’s hearts not into the job for President of the United States of America.
That's a very slippery thing to say.
Fred doesn't HAVE a trophy wife.
What would it take? Like Jackie Mason jokes, "Maybe he should announce that he's a pilot?"
Personally, I am reassured reading his words and seeing clips that for the vast most part (a few exceptions), he has lived and voted conservative values with regard to honor, ethics, and free enterprise. I don't care how shiny and bright and morally righteous the candidate -- seeking control of free enterprise, openly embracing the normalization of homosexuality, and cowering to leftist environmentalist power grabs, BETRAYS CONSERVATIVE VALUES.
Fred has sucuumbed once or twice, but Romney and Giuliani have made careers of it.
Somehow, my tag line seems appropriate for we females! ;^)
Yes! Good Point!!
“What would it take? Like Jackie Mason jokes, “Maybe he should announce that he’s a pilot?””
~ <> ~
For ayone who missed it
http://www.theamericanmind.com/2007/10/11/jackie-mason-defends-fred-thompson/
and I have no doubts his son will carry on the family tradition.
I’m so pleased that Mason supports FRed! I think the world of both of them.
I don't mean to be crude, but for me, his wife has nothing to do with it. In fact I think she is a beautiful, successful woman (with the exception of the horrible choice of the blue nightie) that he should be proud of. Unfortunately when she stands next to him, she makes him seem that much older.
I really tried to like him. I generally like the grandfatherly southern types, but he just doesn't do it for me. I love his voice, and if elections where based on radio interviews and debates, he would probably have me in the bag. But whenever I have seen him on TV, nothing. I do want a leader that excites me. And so far, that isn't Fred.
Me, too! ";^)
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