Real estate: More price drops, more layoffs

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/17/real_estate/mba_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2007101705 ^ | 10-17-07 | Jeanne Sahadi

[Hydroshock]

BOSTON (CNNMoney.com) -- For those in the real estate industry and for those looking to buy or sell a home, it could take until 2009 to catch a break.

That's the forecast from Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), who will present his outlook to an auditorium full of real estate professionals on Wednesday morning.

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Duncan expects national median home prices to fall between 2 percent and 4 percent both this year and next. Prices will be held back by an oversupply of homes for sale, an increase in foreclosures and continued uncertainty among mortgage investors,

Duncan said that some markets will hold their own, but he singled out seven likely to be hit the hardest. They are: California, Texas, Arizona and Nevada, which drew a lot of investor speculation during the housing boom; and Ohio, Michigan and Illinois, where the economies have been hit hard by job loss.

For this year, Duncan is predicting a 22 percent drop in new home sales and a 12 percent drop in existing home sales, followed by a 10 percent drop in each next year. As home sales fall, Duncan also expects a drop of 15 percent in mortgage loan originations to $1.18 trillion this year, plus another 18 percent drop in 2008 to $1 trillion.

[Hydroshock]

Mortgage/Credit/Housing Issues Ping List

If you want on or off this list let me know.

[BlabItGrabIt]

Prices not dropping here in North Texas, as businesses and housing for the workers is moving towards mama and me to where she and I are taking our profits and moving further on down the road.

[RockinRight]

Talk it up! That way the weak in the real estate and mortgage industry will quit...leaving the real work that’s left for the professionals, namely, moi.

;-)

[NVDave]

Ain’t it funny how the resolution of this situation keeps getting pushed out?

Earlier this year, we had the “real estate professionals” on the boobie-toobie telling us that “the worst of the housing market was past” in March. Then they said it would bottom out by fall, 2007 (ie, now).

Last month, there were prognosticators claiming “wait until later 2008 for the market to turn up.”

Now we have a mortgage yahoo saying 2009.

Shades of the tech bubble. If we’re going to compare where we are on the relative timeline of things, right about now, we’re somewhere near the summer of 2001. That’s when people were offering one estimate after another of when tech spending would pick up again. First is was fall, 2001. Then summer of 2002. Then winter of 2002. Then 2003. Along about 2003, we quit hearing estimates of when tech spending would pick up. The layoffs, mergers, reductions, etc were pretty much done by this point, and people were just soldiering onward, not caring any more about what “was” and worrying more about how to make it from quarter to quarter.

Want to know when tech spending finally picked up again? In the middle of 2006.

[sergeantdave]

“For those in the real estate industry and for those looking to buy or sell a home, it could take until 2009 to catch a break. “

Makes no sense. If sellers need to sell, there should be many opportunities to buy. Anyone with cash and good credit will be welcomed by sellers

Of course making sense of anything from CNN requires an advanced degree in liberal brain scramble.

“Michigan.....where the economies have been hit hard by job loss. ...”

Wrong again, CNN morons.

Michigan was hit hard by a thieving, stupid communist female governor, a castrated RINO state senate filled with imbeciles and a majority of liberal moron voters who gave her four more years to destroy the state, despite giving us the highest unemployment in the nation.

[stylin19a]

2009 ? I thought this cycle downturn was going to wipe out all the equity in the world, with foreclosures at 100% and the children will have to live under the viaduct, until eternity ?

Doom & Gloom ping

[SkyPilot]

Obligatory denial post:

"Ha Ha! The real estate market is just great here in FILL IN THE BLANK TOWN/CITY/STATE HERE. Plus, I work in real estate, and everything is just fine!"

[Nervous Tick]

Are you and admin moderator buddies, and he’s “illustrating” your posts to pull your leg?

Or...

Is the Admin Moderator abusing his power to add commentary to your posts that (ahem... hint hint) ought to be added via a comment of his own?

C’mon Admin Moderator... I’ll admit that the “housing bubble” question is a controversial one, but it’s far from clear that Hydro is wrong and you are right. If so (and assuming you’re not teasing him for personal reasons I’m not privy to), instead of vandalizing his posts, why don’t you belly up to the bar and add to the discussion?