Posted on 10/10/2007 8:28:38 PM PDT by RKB-AFG
Dynamics changed from 2003 election
10/9/2007
Daily Journal
JACKSON - In 1999, Democrat Ronnie Musgrove won the Mississippi governor's office by capturing a plurality of the vote at 49.6 percent.
In 2003, the incumbent Musgrove garnered 30,700 votes more than he did in 1999 but received 3.8 percent less of the total votes than he did in 1999 and lost to Republican challenger Haley Barbour.
Turnout was huge in 2003, and it carried Barbour to the Governor's Mansion.
Barbour, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, who is given a considerable amount of the credit for the Republican takeover of the U.S. Congress in 1994, was a master in 2003 in getting people who are likely to vote Republican to the polls.
This November, Barbour wants to replicate that turnout of 2003. If he does, it not only helps him, but helps other Republican candidates up and down the ticket.
That is the claim Barbour makes, and the numbers indicate that he is correct.
On the Monday evening before the election in 2003, I drove by the state Republican Party headquarters. It was a beehive of activity with volunteers from all over the state - perhaps the country - waiting to enter the building to start making phone calls to urge people to vote the next day.
A similar strategy will be employed this November and, no doubt, it will work, but the question is whether it will be as successful as it was in 2003.
GOP 2003 advantages
The Republicans had some built-in advantages in 2003 that they will not have this time around. First and foremost among them is the state flag. Remember the signs urging voters to keep the flag and get rid of the governor.
The fact that Musgrove had endorsed a new state flag early in his administration to replace the current one, which encompasses the Confederate battle emblem in its design, was devastating for the Democratic incumbent during the campaign. Barbour used the flag masterfully, never making it a major issue but keeping it just below the surface.
No one is talking about the flag anymore, though.
Barbour also was able to gin up support with the help of President George Bush making key campaign appearances, especially in heavily populated DeSoto County.
Bush is probably still more popular in Mississippi than he is in most places, but even here he is no longer a campaign asset. And it is questionable how big a campaign asset former New York Mayor and presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani will be.
In 2003, Giuliani campaigned for Barbour on the Gulf Coast. But with leading religious conservatives threatening to find a third candidate to support if Giuliani is the Republican presidential nominee, it is questionable how much the former New York mayor can help Barbour in Mississippi.
After all, many religious conservatives already are disgruntled with Barbour's stance in favor of allowing the casinos to move on land after Hurricane Katrina.
Eaves more conservative?
On many social issues, the case could be made that Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Arthur Eaves Jr. is the more conservative candidate.
Can Eaves win if the turnout is closer to 1999 levels than 2003 levels? Not likely. Barbour still would be considered a heavy favorite.
But a low voter turnout might help Democrats running for other statewide posts and might help them in some key legislative races.
Wow, I thought Barbour was a shoe-in for Governor, he seemed to handle the Katrina situation rather well.
He is. Eaves is a lying sack of $hit ambulance chaser. Trial lawyers and out-of-control lawsuit settlements in MS have been a world-class fiasco.
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