“There seems to be an assumption that Thompson would have trouble winning any states Bush lost, but also it’s just taken for granted that anyone other than Thompson would hold all states Bush won. A very shaky assumption, even more shaky if Rudy is the nominee.”
Yes that could easily be the case. I only mentioned Thompson because this thread is Thompsons strategy for the south.
I don’t think Thompson needs a strategy for the south other than to get the nod and show up. I just don’t think a southerner can be elected in 08. Dems have the same problem with Edwards if he gets the nod.
I live in Texas, but I travel a lot. Midwest, east coast and west coast. It’s my opinion that southerners are not in great favor at the moment anywhere but in the south. You can disagree with that, and maybe you’d be right, but most of the slagging on the GOP that I’ve heard has been about southerners, and I think lots of people still have it in for southern values voters, and that includes the GOP national leadership.
“It’s my opinion that southerners are not in great favor at the moment anywhere but in the south.”
It could definitely be said that Yankees with liberal political pasts are not in great favor in the South. And it’s the South and West, and part of the Midwest that have elected Republican presidents, not those areas where the South might be out of favor.
A scenario where blue states which rarely vote for a Republican presidential candidate, are the states that select the nominee in 2088 might be a recipe for disaster. Could Giuliani or Romney even deliver their home state?
An interesting question: Arkansas went for Bush both times. Do you think Billary will be able to flip Arkansas to vote for Hillary? Could be critical in a close election.