You missed my characterization of his supporters as being ‘wet Tories’ (British for the non-Thatcher wing if the Conservative Party), that goes with gun-grabbing.
Like I said: 25-30% of GOP voters are 1) wet Tories, 2) strong-defense, and 3) libertarian on social issues.
That won’t get him the nomination, just keep him the front runner until the lesser conservatives drop out and folks coalesce around Thompson or Romney. And I’ll repeat my prediction: Thomspon or Romney on the second ballot.
People, think. It is October, and not even Halloween. Only political junkies even know these guys’ names. There are “likely Republican voters” who are not political junkies, and they know Guilliani’s name and no one else’s.
Thompson is fading, even among the political junkies, not because there is anything wrong with him, but because there are others on the stage clearly smarter, more dynamic, and who frankly look healthier. Among the non political junkies this matters a great deal.
Do not be too quick to dismiss any thought of “looks” being a shallow measure. It measures the skill of organization and staff who are assigned to deal with looks and make sure that the candidate . . . need not look charming, but he cannot look ill. This is poor staff work.
What must happen to clarify things is the elimination of some of these fringe third tier people. The worrisome thing about this latest rolling average by Rasmussen is where the Thompson support went. It looks like Romney got 2% of it and Guilliani got 4%. That split cannot be allowed to continue if we are going to stop Guilliani.