I think if the mullahcracy can be brought down without a shot fired, the dominos fall much faster than if we go protracted in that battle.
We have to know what it takes to make the mullahs split the scene: money or valor? We can easily buy them off as well as kill them off; what's the best way to force exile on them? Should we give them the choice, run rich or die en place?
Syria has no chance without Iran behind her.
One man gives the orders in Iran.
Khameinei is on orders from God to establish Shia Islam as the ultimate authority across the middle East, maybe even the globe. I’m not sure buying him off is an option.
He might settle for less, but I don’t find an intersection set between what he’d settle for and what we’d settle for. That doesn’t rule out compromise mathematically, but it’s beyond me to see it.
I don’t believe Iran will be taken from Khameinei without military force. It’s a long shot to say he’ll fall under even massive airstrikes. There’s no Northern Allience in Iran. Not yet, anyway.
I think Syria will go through a...re-education period after the first Iranian subsidy payments begin to fall off. A wholly new and improved attitude may require a series of...demonstrations, ala 9/6, but eventually, they are isolated and too small to stand alone, especially if far mightier Iran has already fallen.
At this point, all the States surrounding Saudi Arabia are hostile to terrorism. This will incrementally nudge the balance beam between modern and Wahabbist Saudi opinion. I do not see any scenarios in Saudi Arabia where large scale or long term military operations are necessary. I’m sure we already are and will continue to cross train with Saudi anti-terrorist forces.
The balance of power in Saudi Arabia already belongs to Abdullah, and did so even before King Fahd died. On the “board of directors”, the good guys have a 55-60% advantage in votes. That makes our objective to help them proceed down the path they already are on, but quickier, easier, and cheaper.