Dobson may not be alone, but he isn’t part of a large crowd.
I’ve been a Baptist since my teens. I don’t know anyone who is waiting for Dobson’s seal of approval. Sad to say, I’ve met plenty of older Baptists who have voted democrat because they want maximum social security handouts.
If the GOP nominates a conservative, it will do fine. If it nominates a half-breed liberal, it will lose some support from conservatives. The political calculus is in judging if the loss of conservative votes will be offset adequately by the pickup of ‘independent’ (ie, people who don’t have any particular beliefs and who therefor vote for whoever they ‘like’) votes.
Will the 2-5% drop be balanced by a 6-8% pickup in the mushy middle? Or will there be a 6-8% drop that cannot be balanced by a 2-3% pickup?
My guess is that the mushy middle will find Hillary pretty objectionable...but many will want her handouts. A candidate like Hunter would pick up 2-3% of conservatives and lose 20% of the mushies. My guess is that either Giuliani, Romney or Thompson can pick up a significant number of mushies. THAT is where Presidents are made (or not), sad to say.
Unfortunately, I must disagree. The way the Republicans lose every-single-time-they-lose is because the base walks. They can never make up the loss of the base with the independents they pick up.
This is turning into another "broken glass" election where the conservatives are supposed to BOHICA. I am pretty certain that will not work. The base was weak last election but the GOP leadership didn't get the clue. This time the base will walk if a RINO is the candidate. it will be a slaughter.
The party would do well to look to the base- To stand for the things it used to. Voting against hillary is not a reason to vote for whatever the RNC throws up.
I think the 2006 elections went a long way in answering your question. Also, the Republican base would get out and vote for Hunter, no doubt about that. I am not sure what the "mushy middle" is exactly but I am not sure there is a candidate who can draw more Democratic votes than Hunter.
Union folks are going to go for him and I have flipped quite a few Democrats for Hunter. If there any who believe there aren't Democrats who are concerned about securing borders and illegal immigration, then, well, they just haven't been paying attention. Hunter is a competent and capable leader and that is going to equal votes.