Is this a settled notion in science? I had gone round & round with someone on a SETI thread over this probability, and he was at something like 1 in 10^40 where I was quoting at least 1 in 10^300, but what is 240 exponents between friends?
Geez, I should learn to count. What is 260 exponents between friends? But I note that there’s a 20 exponent difference between the 2 prior posts, so maybe the margin of error is +/- 20 EXPONENTS.
I believe the Drake equation shows the probability at 1 in 10^2.