1. OBL can't be foolish? he can't do something foolish or less than optimal? (?) You're really making the argument "it can't be true that Osama did X because X would be foolish for Osama to do"? Human beings do lots of foolish things. "X would be foolish!" is not a good argument at all that some human didn't do X. All other things being equal it actually makes it more likely that the human did X ;-)
2. How does he know which area exactly is the precise one "in which he is most likely to remain alive"? If he's stayed alive all this time, maybe he's only done so because he's moved around. Maybe he attributes his survival to the ability to move around. In that case... why I reckon he'd move around!
(UBL has never put himself in position to be used as a pawn by some Cent Gov't - Those who think Iran or Yemen are simply off).
See, this is the kind of argument that is just completely unconvincing. You claim to some intimate knowledge of OBL's life history and then sweepingly proclaim that it's "simply off" to say that he could do such-and-such in the future. That is not a real argument; that is not real supporting evidence/data you have just supplied me. It's a thinly-cloaked appeal to authority (yours); you're an authority on what OBL Would Or Would Not Do. Therefore, if I say "maybe he did X", you don't have to have evidence either way regarding whether he did X, you just consult your own Expertise on what OBL Would Or Would Not Do, and tell me your answer ("simply off").
Not convincing.
And the expertise you implicitly claim to have doesn't even go to my actual claim in the first place. For one thing, I never suggested that if OBL were in Yemen or Iran or somewhere, he would be doing so with the cooperation of those respective governments.
(we've killed apprx half dozen of these Taliban HVTs in the past 8 months alone...after chasing them for 5 years....Did they not exist?).
No. Of course they existed. And I think OBL existed too! never said otherwise. But also I think he's dead (something I never claimed any of those other HVTs in the first place.) That's what I think. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong - I freely admit it's possible that I'm wrong, and if I were proved wrong, I'd say so. But it would take actual evidence to convince me of this.
Reality is, in the short term all the intangibles favored AQ/Taliban HVTs to remain with our OODA loop (especially when one understands risk adverse HQs and JAGs into the equation).
That's true. Yes, any HVT hiding in those places has an advantage over us.
This isn't convincing evidence that OBL draws breath however.
Is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar dead? (in your opinion). Is Hekmatyar operating in Konar (Stan) and Pak border regions?
Is Mullah Omar dead? (in your opinion?) Is he most likely in Pakistan?
Was Mullah Dadullah alive up until early this year in Stan/Pak border regions? (An HVT we had been after since 01).
Again, you can know the whereabouts (within a hex zone) of someone to a high level of certainty (along with the certainty of them being "alive") without being able to pinpoint their exact location.....(especially so, if one understands the terrain within these border regions we are discussing).
And sure, UBL may move around (likely does between seasons within Pak...Almost assuredly). But if he moves within these border regions....all the intangibles still stay on his side...(as he is within the same border regions). Completely different situation then moving between other countries. The variables of to "why" are too numerous to list.