The 11 a.m. (EDT) Tuesday five-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Karen from the National Hurricane Center.
Posted on 09/25/2007 12:08:11 PM PDT by Cagey
PINELLAS COUNTY – Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center are keeping a close eye on five separate weather systems, including Tropical Storm Karen.
The NHC announced Monday night that Tropical Depression 12 had formed. By Tuesday morning, the depression had strengthened into the season’s 11th named storm.
Karen was located about 1515 miles east of the Windward Islands. The storm was moving toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph.
As of Tuesday morning, Karen posed no threat to land, and the present forecast track does not show it on a path toward Florida; however, it is still too early to tell with certainty where the storm will go after about five days.
Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening was forecast. According to the meteorologists’ discussion, computer intensity models are in disagreement as to whether Karen will gain enough strength to become a hurricane.
System two
NHC reported that satellite images showed that a tropical depression could be forming in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 180 miles east of Tampico Mexico. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the area on Tuesday afternoon.
System three
Meteorologists also are watching a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure centered just south of St. Kitts in the Less Antilles. The latest report said that upper-level winds were become less favorable for development. The low was expected to move toward the northwest, bringing squally weather to the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next 24 hours.
System four
Another area of disturbed weather located over south Florida, western Cuba and the western Bahamas was not showing signs of development and predicted that additional development would be slow to occur. Meteorologists said the system could bring locally heavy rains to south Florida and the Keys during the next day or two.
Pinellas County Emergency Management officials continue to urge residents to keep a close eye on the weather.
Residents who do not yet know their hurricane evacuation level should visit www.pinellascounty.org/emergency or call 727-453-3150. Evacuation levels also are printed on Pinellas County Utility bills and Truth in Millage notices from the Property Appraiser’s office.
Citizens with special needs and those who plan to utilize a pet shelter need to pre-register, host home arrangements need to be completed, and all plans put in place.
Thus far this season, 10 named storms have formed - Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid and Jerry. Dean was the first hurricane of the season and the first major hurricane. Dean and Felix were two of the strongest Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30.
The 11 a.m. (EDT) Tuesday five-day forecast track for Tropical Storm Karen from the National Hurricane Center.
Yet another piece of evidence that humans are causing global climate change.
Please tell me your kidding, right?
It’s about time they named one after me.
Keep giving each little tropical burp a name and pretty soon you will have a “record” of “increased storm activity”.
Please gimme a break. And what happened to “Jerry”? Fell apart in less than 24hrs.
But it was a “named storm”.
Real evidence of global warming!
A La Nina year and peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Karen doesn’t seem to be a threat to land right now, but if it takes the southernmost track, it could be a threat to the US and the islands in-between. There are some other disturbances out there, but nothing as developed as Karen. There’s a disturbance in the Gulf that’s developing, but that’s only a threat to Mexico right now. I say right now, because anything can happen with these systems if they catch a warm pocket, ala Hurricane Humberto, or they do a loop, ala Hurricane Jeanne. So watch out.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ is my favorite place to go for tropical weather, as it shows undeveloped systems and international tropical weather, along with active US tropical systems. Dr. Jeff Master’s Tropical Weather Blog is also fantastic at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html as he takes great care to explain what is going on and why. He’s in the global-warming bandwagon, but he doesn’t get into that too often, so it’s not too aggravating. Just a warning that the site is quite heavy on the ads. Don’t think there are pop-ups though. If you can’t stand ads at all, then go to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov which has literally zero ads, as it’s a government site. I go to all of them, but I’m going into meteorology.
so what effect is La Nina supposed to have on Hurricane formation/intensity? Seems this Hurricane season is falling way below expectations so far.
Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is generally higher during La Nina years. We had 2 Category 5 storms hit land, so I’d definitely say that this year has not been “below expectations”. We still have two more months in the hurricane season, so a lot more could still happen.
by “below expectations”, I mean below Al Gore’s expecations of imminent doom.
fish
Statement as of 7:00 PM CDT on September 27, 2007
...Lorenzo becomes a hurricane as it nears the coast of Mexico... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Palma Sola to Cabo Rojo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from south of Palma Sola to Veracruz. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to La Cruz. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 700 PM CDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 96.2 west or about 75 miles...125 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. Lorenzo is moving toward the west near 6 mph...9 km/hr...and this general motion toward the coast of Mexico is expected until the center crosses the coast of Mexico in the next 6 to 12 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some additional strengthening is likely prior to landfall. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 20 miles...30 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches. Storm surge flooding of of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center crosses the coast. Lorenzo is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the Mexican state of Veracruz...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Repeating the 700 PM CDT position...20.4 N...96.2 W. Movement toward...west near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph. Minimum central pressure...993 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin
Karen threatens the US now on several models, as a potentially powerful storm.
Karen dissipates; Melissa weakening
http://www.nbc-2.com/Articles/readarticle.asp?articleid=14931&z=3&p=
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