Several months ago I posted in some of the discussions about a possible Newt candidacy my contention and reasoning that Newt was positioning himself as a possible conservative "spoiler". Curiously, I had absolutely no responses to those comments, so, for the record, I'll offer my arguments here again.
However viciously they fight among themselves over the spoils of power, the last thing the establishment elites of either party want is a genuinely viable conservative candidate. No matter how much they attack each other, if it appears a more-or-less genuine conservative who might actually follow the Constitution somewhat becomes a threat, they will make common cause to destroy him. With regards to the current crop of candidates, here's how that plays out.
Duncan Hunter, at least by his record, is the most consistently conservative, therefore he is unacceptable to the elites under any circumstances. Luckily for them he is not an effective campaigner on the national level and has shown he will be unable to break through the tacit MSM consensus to simply ignore him as much as possible. So far, ignoring him is effective enough; it is not necessary to attack him in order to neutralize him.
Fred Thompson appears to also be a genuine conservation, but his public career has taken a different tack in that he has been sophisticated enough to establish a significant level of co-operation and contacts with the "insider" elites, yet has also never lost his ability to connect with us common folk. /grin This duality is a double-edged sword, however.
Many of the elites believe Thompson is "their man", one who possesses the advantages of both the down-home appeal and empathy of George Bush AND the intellectual articulateness and public-speaking presence of Bill Clinton. These elites support Thompson because they believe he can win AND because they believe they'll be able to control him. They believe his down-home campaign persona and his nuanced, intellectualized conservative position statements are simply clever campaign strategies in order to get elected and that once in office he won't do much to disrupt their comfortable status quo.
The grass-roots conservatives who support Thompson, however, believe he's a "real" conservative simply because they so desperately need to believe it. He has a good conservative record, albeit with certain ambiguities, and he says the right things, mostly, although some of those "nuanced, intellectualized conservative position statements", as well as those extensive insider connections, are troubling. Whatever their doubts, as far as the available information is concerned, he's good enough AND he can win.
For Thompson, this state of ambiguity works to his benefit by allowing supporters to project onto him their hopes and desires and also by giving possible opponents plausible reasons for caution and hesitation in attacking him. If Thompson has the skill to walk this tightrope of ambiguity and keep both camps of supporters guessing long enough he can win it all. There is simply no way at present to tell which group is being snookered.
Finally, we come to Newt Gingrich. Months ago Newt stated that he would only enter the race if no conservative appeared to be viable. Thompson, however unconventional his tactics, has steadily gained ground and is now a frontrunner, yet Newt is now making noises about getting in. Therefore, his previously stated rationale was a lie. So what is going on?
Newt is essentially an insider "ringer", the establishment's "designated conservative" who is brilliantly articulate enough to talk-the-talk but who lacks the necessary core of deeply-held belief and commitment to walk-the-walk. Newt's out for Newt and is for sale to the highest bidder. In this election he is willingly serving as the tool of those insiders who don't want to take the chance of betting wrong on Thompson, so they'll use Newt to divide, fragment and dissipate the gathering conservative momentum. This will throw the GOP nomination to Guiliani, and for the insiders, either a Guiliani or a Hillary victory is perfectly acceptable.