Provided the poll was reasonably accurate, Carter beat Reagan in the poll because nationwide, people did not really know Reagan yet. Then during the runup to the election they got to know him, and compared him to Carter, and Carter suffered a humiliating defeat which he still to this day has not gotten over.
Fred will do same to Hillary. It might even be worse than the Reagan landslide. Everyone hates hillary, even her supporters. Everyone likes Fred even his enemies.
Your take on it is correct IMHO.