If it were the Clinton Administration in power right now, either Bill or Hitlery, probably the FR threads would seethe and bubble over with widespread agreement over the premise of this foreboding article.
However with a Republican (some would say a "RINO" but that is a different thread!) firmly at the White House helm, you see a preponderance here of dismissing this kind of projection and prediction.
I can tell you from independently watching things here in Japan, watching the USA, Brit and Asian markets, taking temperatures everywhere, and talking with tons of people, this is an extremely serious global situation the likes we have not seen in many of our lifetimes.
I for one am not particularly optimistic about things right now. We had heard the warnings about such things as these Too-Good-To-Be-True "No Interest Loans" and other packages and products. It is all about the sub-prime borrowers, not a few of them illegal aliens, itinerant, untrustworthy, irresponsible, illiterate and the like, simplistically thinking they could base their payback ability on ever rising domestic U.S. real estate values. Freely and of their own volition, ignorance, greed or whatever they went out on a limb (again, their foolishness) and the mortgage companies and shady financial organizations also going out on a limb (again, their foolishness, too).
Wait till the other shoe drops. It AIN'T going to be pretty. Democrat or Republican in the White House. No difference!!
There are nearly 500 TRILLION dollars of debt out there backed directly or indirectly by sub prime loans. For ever 1 dollar of sub prime mtg debt, the debt it supports is 20 to 30 times that, as theses bundled mortgages were used as collateral to borrow more money to buy more debt securites etc etc..
To give you an idea HOW big this is... the world wide (not just the USA, but world wide production (the value of everything produced on the planet) is about 60-65 Trillion a year. So that means that if the entire worlds production was dedicated just to pay off this debt, it would take 8 years roughly to do so.
This is a scope and scale that few alive today have witnessed..... its going to be ugly folks.
The sub-prime loan 'problem' was manufactured by media muscle. There was no problem; interest rates were holding low enough that refinancing was working smoothly until the drive-bys started screaming "housing bubble," and the sheep started to believe them. Keep on worshipping the liars.
Yes, and the problem with picking when a bubble is going to burst, is that it can keep on expanding for years and if every early warning is heeded, much money is left on the table.
This could, but probably will not end like 1929.