Posted on 09/15/2007 8:24:09 PM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
September 16, 2007
Israelis ‘blew apart Syrian nuclear cache’
Secret raid on Korean shipment
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv, Sarah Baxter in Washington and Michael Sheridan
IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.
At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.
Ten days after the jets reached home, their mission was the focus of intense speculation this weekend amid claims that Israel believed it had destroyed a cache of nuclear materials from North Korea.
The Israeli government was not saying. “The security sources and IDF [Israeli Defence Forces] soldiers are demonstrating unusual courage,” said Ehud Olmert, the prime minister. “We naturally cannot always show the public our cards.”
The Syrians were also keeping mum. “I cannot reveal the details,” said Farouk al-Sharaa, the vice-president. “All I can say is the military and political echelon is looking into a series of responses as we speak. Results are forthcoming.” The official story that the target comprised weapons destined for Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shi’ite group, appeared to be crumbling in the face of widespread scepticism.
Andrew Semmel, a senior US State Department official, said Syria might have obtained nuclear equipment from “secret suppliers”, and added that there were a “number of foreign technicians” in the country.
Asked if they could be North Korean, he replied: “There are North Korean people there. There’s no question about that.” He said a network run by AQ Khan, the disgraced creator of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons, could be involved.
But why would nuclear material be in Syria? Known to have chemical weapons, was it seeking to bolster its arsenal with something even more deadly?
Alternatively, could it be hiding equipment for North Korea, enabling Kim Jong-il to pretend to be giving up his nuclear programme in exchange for economic aid? Or was the material bound for Iran, as some authorities in America suggest?
According to Israeli sources, preparations for the attack had been going on since late spring, when Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, presented Olmert with evidence that Syria was seeking to buy a nuclear device from North Korea.
The Israeli spy chief apparently feared such a device could eventually be installed on North-Korean-made Scud-C missiles.
“This was supposed to be a devastating Syrian surprise for Israel,” said an Israeli source. “We’ve known for a long time that Syria has deadly chemical warheads on its Scuds, but Israel can’t live with a nuclear warhead.”
An expert on the Middle East, who has spoken to Israeli participants in the raid, told yesterday’s Washington Post that the timing of the raid on September 6 appeared to be linked to the arrival three days earlier of a ship carrying North Korean material labelled as cement but suspected of concealing nuclear equipment.
The target was identified as a northern Syrian facility that purported to be an agricultural research centre on the Euphrates river. Israel had been monitoring it for some time, concerned that it was being used to extract uranium from phosphates.
According to an Israeli air force source, the Israeli satellite Ofek 7, launched in June, was diverted from Iran to Syria. It sent out high-quality images of a northeastern area every 90 minutes, making it easy for air force specialists to spot the facility.
Early in the summer Ehud Barak, the defence minister, had given the order to double Israeli forces on its Golan Heights border with Syria in anticipation of possible retaliation by Damascus in the event of air strikes.
Sergei Kirpichenko, the Russian ambassador to Syria, warned President Bashar al-Assad last month that Israel was planning an attack, but suggested the target was the Golan Heights.
Israeli military intelligence sources claim Syrian special forces moved towards the Israeli outpost of Mount Hermon on the Golan Heights. Tension rose, but nobody knew why.
At this point, Barak feared events could spiral out of control. The decision was taken to reduce the number of Israeli troops on the Golan Heights and tell Damascus the tension was over. Syria relaxed its guard shortly before the Israeli Defence Forces struck.
Only three Israeli cabinet ministers are said to have been in the know – Olmert, Barak and Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister. America was also consulted. According to Israeli sources, American air force codes were given to the Israeli air force attaché in Washington to ensure Israel’s F15Is would not mistakenly attack their US counterparts.
Once the mission was under way, Israel imposed draconian military censorship and no news of the operation emerged until Syria complained that Israeli aircraft had violated its airspace. Syria claimed its air defences had engaged the planes, forcing them to drop fuel tanks to lighten their loads as they fled.
But intelligence sources suggested it was a highly successful Israeli raid on nuclear material supplied by North Korea.
Washington was rife with speculation last week about the precise nature of the operation. One source said the air strikes were a diversion for a daring Israeli commando raid, in which nuclear materials were intercepted en route to Iran and hauled to Israel. Others claimed they were destroyed in the attack.
There is no doubt, however, that North Korea is accused of nuclear cooperation with Syria, helped by AQ Khan’s network. John Bolton, who was undersecretary for arms control at the State Department, told the United Nations in 2004 the Pakistani nuclear scientist had “several other” customers besides Iran, Libya and North Korea.
Some of his evidence came from the CIA, which had reported to Congress that it viewed “Syrian nuclear intentions with growing concern”.
“I’ve been worried for some time about North Korea and Iran outsourcing their nuclear programmes,” Bolton said last week. Syria, he added, was a member of a “junior axis of evil”, with a well-established ambition to develop weapons of mass destruction.
The links between Syria and North Korea date back to the rule of Kim Il-sung and President Hafez al-Assad in the last century. In recent months, their sons have quietly ordered an increase in military and technical cooperation.
Foreign diplomats who follow North Korean affairs are taking note. There were reports of Syrian passengers on flights from Beijing to Pyongyang and sightings of Middle Eastern businessmen from sources who watch the trains from North Korea to China.
On August 14, Rim Kyong Man, the North Korean foreign trade minister, was in Syria to sign a protocol on “cooperation in trade and science and technology”. No details were released, but it caught Israel’s attention.
Syria possesses between 60 and 120 Scud-C missiles, which it has bought from North Korea over the past 15 years. Diplomats believe North Korean engineers have been working on extending their 300-mile range. It means they can be used in the deserts of northeastern Syria – the area of the Israeli strike.
The triangular relationship between North Korea, Syria and Iran continues to perplex intelligence analysts. Syria served as a conduit for the transport to Iran of an estimated £50m of missile components and technology sent by sea from North Korea. The same route may be in use for nuclear equipment.
But North Korea is at a sensitive stage of negotiations to end its nuclear programme in exchange for security guarantees and aid, leading some diplomats to cast doubt on the likelihood that Kim would cross America’s “red line” forbidding the proliferation of nuclear materials.
Christopher Hill, the State Department official representing America in the talks, said on Friday he could not confirm “intelligence-type things”, but the reports underscored the need “to make sure the North Koreans get out of the nuclear business”.
By its actions, Israel showed it is not interested in waiting for diplomacy to work where nuclear weapons are at stake.
As a bonus, the Israelis proved they could penetrate the Syrian air defence system, which is stronger than the one protecting Iranian nuclear sites.
This weekend President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran sent Ali Akbar Mehrabian, his nephew, to Syria to assess the damage. The new “axis of evil” may have lost one of its spokes.
The reports in the truck movements I have seen say that they all went to “Western Syria” - there may well be a fourth hole that no one wants to talk about.
As reported in an Israeli news source. The same guys who gave the other vague reports.
But North Korea is at a sensitive stage of negotiations to end its nuclear program in exchange for security guarantees and aid, leading some diplomats to cast doubt on the likelihood that Kim would cross America’s “red line” forbidding the proliferation of nuclear materials.
They have got to be kidding.
“That would not be so wise in Syria. A few times I had read that they have the 4 or 5 largest chem/bio build facilities in the world.”
Uh huh... Go on? You grasshopper are starting to see. So where would Iraq Bio/Chem material go where it could vanish?
Ronen Solomon, who searches information in the public domain for companies, told Haaretz he found references to a ship called Al Hamad on three different Web sites after the initial reports of the Israeli raid in Syria on September 6. These included the official sites of Syria’s Tartous Port and the Egyptian Transportation Ministry.
Two of the three sites said the ship was flying a North Korean flag, and the third site reported it was flying a South Korean flag.
Haaretz confirmed Solomon’s report.
(snip)
Following the Washington Post report, Solomon returned to the three sites, and discovered that all mentions of the North Korean flag on Al Hamad had been deleted, and that the ship’s flag was now registered as ‘unknown.’
It's far more likely that we observed and recorded the attack in real-time and that both American and Israeli analysts are even now studying the videos.
Best to take apart Syria BEFORE launching the assault on Iran. Fewer variables at play and teaches Iran a lesson they MIGHT learn without having to go through evisceration.
My take has always been that we couldn’t smash the three WMD sites Russia moved Saddam’s stuff to: there would be irreparable contamination of aquifers for hundreds of miles downstream. If we ‘looked the other way’ while they were moved at night, we could take them out at their new depots.
“For once, Russia did the right thing by misleading Syria, albeit unintentionally.:-)”
IMHO the reality is the Russians and the Chinese want to see a nuclear Islamofacist regime about as much as we want to see one. Imagine if one of these nukes got to Kosovo and snuck into a Moscow train station?
Same goes with Irans nuke capabilities. The Russians and Germans are building the thing. They already gave the US the blueprints to where everything is. Militarily, we know everything, especially how to destroy it.
It is the politics behind it where the games are played.
For a reason you might understand, it was not prominently featured.:-)
WP "북 핵장비 선적 추정 선박 입항후 시리아 공습"
연합뉴스
입력 : 2007.09.16 00:29
이스라엘은 이달초 북한으로부터 나온 핵 물질을 실은 것으로 추정되는 선박이 시리아에 입항한 직후, 이 나라 북부의 핵 의혹 시설을 공습했다고 워싱턴 포스트지가 15일 보도했다.
지난 6일 실시된 시리아 핵의혹 시설 공습작전에 가담한 이스라엘 관계자들을 인터뷰한 미국의 한 유명 중동전문가는 이번 공습이 북한으로부터 나온 핵장비를 실은 것으로 추정되는 선박이 시리아에 입항한 뒤 사흘만에 극비리에 단행됐다고 밝힌 것으로 신문은 전했다.
문제의 선박은 시멘트라고 표시된 물건을 선적하고 있었으며 실제 내용물이 무엇인지는 확실하지 않지만 핵장비가 실려 있었다는 공감대가 이스라엘에서 형성돼가고 있다고 이 전문가는 말했다.
이 선박은 9월 3일 시리아 북부 타터스에 입항했으며 이스라엘은 그로부터 사흘뒤인 6일 터키와의 접경지대 유프라테스강변에 있는 시리아의 핵 의혹시설을 극비리에 공습한 것으로 전해졌다.
이스라엘은 농산물연구센터로 알려진 이 시설을 이용, 시리아가 인산비료로부터 우라늄 추출을 시도하는 것으로 보고 이를 예의 감시해왔다.
시리아 북부 이 시설물에 대한 공습은 극비리에 단행돼 작전에 투입된 이스라엘군 조종사들조차 이륙하고나서야 임무를 브리핑받았으며, 관련 보도 철저히 통제한 것으로 전해졌다.
이는 이스라엘이 과거 이라크의 오시라크 핵발전소 공습 사실을 공개적으로 밝혔다 세계적인 비난을 자초한데 따른 것으로 보인다고 이 전문가는 분석했다.
공습에도 불구하고 시리아가 거의 항의를 하지 않은 반면, 국제문제에 논평을 잘 하지 않는 북한은 이례적으로 신속히 이를 비난해 의혹을 부풀리고 있다고 신문은 지적했다.
그러나 전직 정보관리 출신인 브루스 라이델 미국 브루킹스연구소 연구원은 이스라엘의 공습 목표물이 핵시설이었는지는 대단히 회의적이며, 그보다는 화생방무기 관련 시설일 가능성이 크다고 지적했다.
중동사태를 예의 관찰해온 다른 소식통들도 이번 공습이 레바논 내 헤즈볼라에게로 향하는 이란의 무기 수송거점을 겨냥한 것으로 보인다고 분석한 것으로 신문은 전했다.
bump for publicity
“The German ships were not just fishing trawlers, but sophisticated German intelligence ships, equipped with all necessary equipment, and part of a UN monitoring force, so they were bound to catch the 8 or so IAF aircraft going in to deliver their payloads.”
And my bet is they knew the Israelis were coming.
“What approach and reaction will he take?”
American diplomats will send Iran, Syria and NK a kindly worded message.
“We know where everything is, how it is built, what it would take to destroy it and how long it will take. Your anti-aircraft defenses cannot find us as proven and we have 150,000 plus troops on both your doorsteps to move in any direction we want.”
“Now, you need valueable resources. We need stability in Iraq. Get your agents and weapons out of there, tell us where the AQ and Mahdi radicals are, let us kill them and you can keep the political and PR battle going.”
Or......
WP “north Syria air raid after nuclear equipment shipment presumed vessel entering port”
Union news
Input: 2007.09.16 00:29
State of Israel reported immediately after the vessel which is presumed that it loads the nuclear material which comes out from this month beginning North Korea enters port into Syria, it air raided the nuclear doubt facility of this country northern part, Washington post price of land 15th.
6th it passes the grudge famous Middle East specialist of the United States which interviews the State of Israel officials who participate in the Syria nuclear doubt facility air raid operation which is executed after the vessel which is presumed that it loads the nuclear equipment where this time air raid comes out from North Korea enters port into Syria at only three day it was carried out in pole irrationality, the newspaper conveyed with the fact that it reveals.
The vessel of problem the cement is indicated the factual content water thing the line probably is what, is not positively, the nuclear equipment was being recorded being formed from sympathy price State of Israel, this specialist talked that it is going.
This vessel State of Israel to enter port into September 3rd Syria northern part other sprouting [su] from him border line zone [yu] [phu] of 6th Republic of Turkey which is after three day and electrolysis fell with the fact that it air raids the nuclear doubt facility of Syria which is to the reel [su] riverside to pole irrationality.
State of Israel used this facility which becomes known as the agricultural products research center and, Syria from the phosphoric acid fertilizer the ardency which report will reach the fact that it attempts a uranium extraction to watch, it came.
The air raid the Syria northern part against the facility was carried out in pole irrationality and even the State of Israel army pilots who are committed in operation it took off and it came out and with the fact that it controls thoroughly a task, briefing it received relation report electrolysis it fell.
It was visible with the fact that the causing outdoors it follows the world-wide criticism which reveals a [khu] nuclear power plant air raid fact open to the public State of Israel to come past Republic of Iraq, this specialist analyzed.
Air raid the other side where Syria does not send protest a despite almost, North Korea which does not send a criticism well in international problem will reach exceptionally and quickly that the doubt to criticize it is swelling the newspaper indicated.
The american [pu] [lwu] king [su] laboratory research worker where but [pu] loose it is a change of occupation information civil official native will be burnt the air raid target of State of Israel probably is nuclear facility, large grade was have a meeting, that it sees that the chemical, biological and radiological weapon relation facility one possibility is big, it indicated.
Ardency it observationd a Middle East situation and all the different well-informed people this time air raid the [hey] [cu] ball inside Republic of Lebanon to it will aim the weapon transportation strong-point of Iran toward with the fact that and, the newspaper conveyed with the fact that it analyzes.
google translated :^/
Yes. We need them in Iraq. Furthermore we are not just at war with AQ (which seems to be your narrow premise) - We are at war with terrorism itself - OIF, is essential to this war (not just Vs AQ, but Vs terrorism itself). After Sept 11th, no serious CinC could sit back and allow the Saddam regime to remain in power - It was 12 years of games and lies regarding agreed to UN resolutions. He was a state sponsor of terrorism, he was firing on Allied Aircraft routinely...and the threat of the unknown WMD equation had to be dealt with. Plain and simple.
Secondly (for the longer picture) We could no longer sit back and allow the citizens of the ME (in total) to live in the dark ages (controlled fully by dictators and anti-American Mullahs). Where the values of self-worth and freedoms were nonexistent.
Those two values are taking shape now in Iraq, Stan and elsewhere (this is why Syria and Iran are so troubled). The values of self-worth and freedoms are our biggest allies in this WOT.
OIF was always a three phase operation.
Phase I - Remove the Saddam regime (accomplished amazing well and much quicker than "experts" expected). Phase II - Help to establish and new Iraqi Govt / constitution (accomplished, and done so quite impressively by historic standards). Phase III - Stand by this new Gov't until it is able to stand on its own (this phase has clearly been the most difficult for a variety of reasons. AQ and its mimics understanding the importance of Iraq (which you seemingly don't). Iran and Syria understanding the importance of Iraq (which again, you apparently don't). And the slowness in which the Iraqi Gov't has been able to shed the skin of being under a brutal dictator rule for 30 years.
But on the whole Phase I&II were accomplished very well. We are winning Phase III but it has clearly been difficult and frusrating. That is what war is....Our enemies do not want to lose Iraq. They understand its value.
Iran is probably spending much less than 500B and is probably getting more for their money than we are for ours. Could some of that 500B be better spent going after AQ elsewhere. Could some of those 160K have more impact going after AQ elsewhere?
Better off? In the last 6 years it has found itself surrounded by not only American boots on the ground, but with the concepts and values of self-worth and freedoms spreading - This is their worst nightmare. U.S. forces surrounding them, established & networking...
Understand. Amateurs talk tactics....Professionals talk logistics, logistics, logistics...
At at what cost to us? Apprx 4,000 lost lives of great men and women (tragic for individual families....but in reality the small numbers of casualties we have taken in this WOT is astounding!) - DOD&CIA "gammers" were talking 10K in U.S. KIA casualty figures for BOTH Iraq and Stan (prior to 02). That's 20,000 KIA. (not even close).
Not that what they’re doing isn’t worthy but at the end of the day, I don’t really know if it is the best way to go after AQ and I don’t think it is
Not the best way to go after AQ? Well, since Sept 11th, 2001 our enemies (which include AQ and more) have suffered one strategic defeat after another....we have not suffered one. Hell, you would be hard pressed to find even a half dozen DA tactical engagements our enemies could claim successful.
Since 01, we have killed or captured over 3/4 of AQ original leadership, ditto that percentage of their less effective replacements.....Not to mention killed ten's of thousands of their foot soldiers. We have removed them from their self-delougional impenetrable fortress of Stan to boot (a feat the Russians couldn't accomplish in 10 years).
No, we are being extremely successful in this WOT. The public like seeing stuff like Zarqawi’s house being blown up, Uday and Qusay being taken out by TOW missiles and tank fire. Publicizing a few of some of these successful ops would go a long way towards building public support and getting people more engaged in the war on terror.
Those events only happened because of literally thousands of other "less cool" Ops that took place on the ground prior.
Furthermore we have killed 6 highly sought after AQ/Taliban HVTs in Stan within the past 8 months (HVTs we have been after since 01 - HVTs that sit on the Taliban Sr. Council) - These have been tremendous hits for our side - Yet, you seem clearly unaware of them??
Bush has pushed Iraq and made it seem as if victory in Iraq will be victory over AQ
Because it clearly will be - GWB deals with reality - It seems incredibly odd, that armchair types like yourself (and in the MSM) all don't want to face the strategic and tactical realities that those fighting this war keep telling everyone. Our military knows how vital Iraq is to the GWOT. AQ knows it, keeps saying it, keeps devoting tremendous resources to it....Iran and Syria likewise.
Yet, you, seem to think all these parties are wrong...and we should all be killing each other in "cooler" Ops in other areas outside of Iraq.
I find this reasoning so incredibly naive and silly (with all due respect). It is like the Democrats leadership of today....They insist "we need to get out of Iraq, so we can go fight our real enemies, AQ"......Yet that is exactly who we are fighting in Iraq...AQ!
But it seems like in many respects we’ve become so focused on Iraq that we’ve let up in other areas.
The MSM owns your mind - Because that isn't not even close to the truth - We have killed more Taliban HVTs in the past year, than we had in the past 3 years combined! - We have hit places from the HOA to SE Asia over the past 12 months.
The reality GWB is not looking for a band-aid approach to the WOT. He has taken a long term and serious look at how we can change the ME. The world is simply too small and too easily mass casualty dangerous to allow such hate to fill that region unconfronted. Establishing and standing by beachheads of freedom, while at the same time going after "bad guys" 24/7 is key to changing the ME. It is a process that will of course be very difficult and extremely frustrating at times. But it is serious, and it takes a path in which we can be successful in total...in both the short and long term.
Now, I will end with the notion that Mil HQs and the DOD/Pentagon have to be willing to take more risks. There are plenty within these that are risk adverse. And even more within the CIA. Those risk adverse hurtles have certainly cost us from taking out even more HVTs than we have to date. Those risk adverse types stretch our OODA loop and allow our enemies to work within in with greater ease.
I HATE it when that happens..
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