Recession is baked into the cake. The Fed can lower all they want, but people are not going to borrow to continue speculation in the housing bubble. Because of that, 100’s of thousands of real estate and banking people are going to lose their jobs. Also people are not (and cannot) refinance for extra cash to spend on stuff.
I have to agree on the recession. I am glad I am not a big spender. My brother invented the word “tightwad”. He and I are kind of close.