Attack from the future (parallels between John Howard and George H.W. Bush)

The Australian ^ | 13th September 2007 | Greg Sheridan

[naturalman1975]

HERE is a leader honoured in the world, determined in war, skilful at diplomacy, successful at home, universally respected, enormous electoral triumphs to his name, and about to suffer a crushing, humiliating defeat.

Who am I talking about? John Howard today?

No, the leader I have in mind is George H.W. Bush, the father of today's US President, in 1992.

The paradox at the heart of Howard's dilemma is obvious. The economy is roaring ahead, the nation has never stood higher in international esteem, no one could argue the PM is physically or mentally not up to the job. And yet the polls show he is going to get creamed, and they have shown that, without exception or ambiguity, for a long time.

This seems to break the rules of politics. If an economy is doing well, if there is no international disturbance, if the government is not mired in controversy, if the leader is respected, then surely the electorate will stick?

In truth, the rules of politics are often broken. There are many examples of Western electorates becoming tired of a competent incumbent who becomes a symbol of the past, and deciding to move on.

The most telling example is Bush Sr in 1992. He was and is a fine man and he was a good president. He had been CIA director, ambassador to China, a congressman and Ronald Reagan's vice-president, and he had to his credit a slashing electoral triumph over Michael Dukakis in 1988.

[uscabjd]

What do the Aus polls show about the election? When is the election?

[FFranco]

As far as I know, the election hasn’t been called yet. I read speculation it might be some time in October or November. Howard is not doing well. The Iraq war is unpopular in Australia and there have been scandals in his administration.