Rudy will take the urban centers, approximately 25%-35% of the delegates.
Hunter will win in and around his Congressional District, approximately 5% of the delegates.
Fred will win the rest.
I would have thought that urban centers were more than 35%. Indeed, Dems control 34 of 53 seats...
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml
I’m assuming that each CD will elect 3 delegates, with the remaining or so being awarded at large. Some of those urban center CD’s have very few R’s.
Schwarzenegger did do well in many of these D areas. Yeah, I know, I’m comparing general vs. primary....
I think I’m leaning toward Rudy getting the higher delegate count but Thompson getting more votes...
This Northern Californian sees it the same way.
Rudy will do better than anyone thinks. He is a hard campaigner. He has lots of leadership experience. That experience is going to pay dividends. He is particularly good at inspiring his troops to work like trojans for him. He will win more California districts than his competitors believe, including some suburban ones. He will win more delegates in Dixie than most observers are willing to credit him at this time. Rudy spent thousands of hours campaigning for GOP candidates in Dixie in ‘04 and ‘06. Fred needs to step it up with more than folksy one-liners if he is going to wrest the nomination from Rudy. I’m a conservative who will vote for Fred if I think he can beat Hillary. Otherwise, I’m going with Rudy. His liberalism on social issues irks me, but not as much as the thought Bubba and the Mrs. back in the White house for eight years. Most conservatives do not comprehend just how anti-GOP of a mood has swept over the Republic. I don’t see Fred as having the capacity to buck that trend at this time. I see Rudy as a winner in all the states Bush took plus Pa, NJ, Conn., Minn., and Wisc. I see Fred taking most of the Dole “L” but not taking OH, Iowa, or NM. I hope I’m wrong about Fred, but his history does not lend me much encouragement.
I see it as something of a showdown for the CAGOP. Are the Conservatives really the determining faction, or is it as Arnold has been preaching, and the party in CA really wants centrists?
If the Rep. primary voters tip one way or the other decisively, it will set the course for the next Gubernatorial and Senate race. Are we going with Arnold’s vision or McClintock’s?