I’m reviving this thread... with a few pings.
I was just watching a youtube video from last Thursday’s press conference of Pete Wilson’s endorsement of Giuliani (who Wilson is confident can win the nomination in California). At the end of Part 5, the reporter directs a question to Pete Wilson about a “recent change in how republican delegates are distributed - a GOP rules change” (loose quote). In response, in the beginning of Part 6, Wilson acts clueless and asks if the reporter means a change in how electoral counts are counted. But Rudy is nodding and bobbing his head in the background, jumps in, and answers the question.
“You get 3 delegates per congressional district. Democrat congressional districts are going to be very important—to Republicans. In fact, in a way, disproportiately. You’ve got to work with that.”
Now, I know I’m a tad bit cynical about all of these RINOs, but I smell a rat in this whole thing. Rudy is just a bit too informed on the inner workings of this for my liking and I think it is exposing his strategy, although I don’t understand exactly what it is. Can anybody elaborate on how they think this is going to all play out—or what he’s trying for?
Here is Part 6 of the press conference: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIsVjJ2_Fcc
From the information below, I find that this GOP Rules Change was made in 2004, although no one noticed.
California Republican Presidential Primary Will No Longer Be Winner-Take-All In 2008
The California Republican Party has modified its rules, changing the Golden State’s presidential primary from a winner-take-all contest to one where most of the 173 available Republican delegates to the party’s national presidential nominating convention will be chosen by winner-take-all within congressional districts. The new rules were actually in effect for the first time during the 2004 California Republican presidential primary, but few folks noticed because President George W. Bush was the only significant GOP candidate on the ballot.
Keeping in mind from a previous discussion that there are three types of delegates - electoral (with two types within this category - congressional district and at-large), Republican Party leader, and bonus - it appears that California will have 159 Republican congressional delegates, 11 Republican at-large delegates, 3 Republican Party leader delegates, and 0 bonus delegates. The 3 Republican Party leader delegates - RNC committeeman, RNC committeewoman, and state Republican Party chairman - will be uncommitted delegates; the 11 at-large delegates will go to the Republican presidential candidate winning the most primary votes statewide; and the 3 delegates in each of the 53 congressional districts in California will go to the Republican presidential candidate winning the most primary votes within each of those congressional districts.
I think they are going to put their time and energy in lost-cause Congressional districts in places like South Central LA where there are only 50 or 60 Republicans. They have figured out that Rudy's star power can win him those little enclaves and more than make up for conservative and Northern California districts that will be won by a real conservative but have hundreds of thousands of Republican voters and hence expensive and time-consuming to campaign in..
This thing is going to come down to grassroots activism in those high-dem congressional districts where no one has ever campaigned or organized before.