I agree with your assessment (at least today), but am holding out hope that Tancredo will be able to pull off a miracle win. He is a true blue conservative, even if Republicans no longer are.
I must admit that I adore Tom Tancredo and have gotten to spend quite a bit of time with him over the past 2 or 3 years (see www.tnrip.org) but, no matter how GREAT he would be on the illegal immigration issue, he simply doesn't seem to fully understand the proper role of government (i.e. to protect and defend individual liberty and rights as opposed to government intervention in many areas). I must also admit that I told Tom just last spring that my DREAM ticket for pres. and v-pres. would be Ron Paul and him to which he replied that he was honored (and this was WAY before he decided to take a serious look at running for pres.). He also said (at that time) that were he to throw his hat in the ring that he would be doing it to bring attention to the illegal immigration issue instead of letting it be ignored like it was in '04). He's a SUPER individual but I can't support him in the primaries as I feel there is someone better in the running. Of course, how the primaries play out will ultimately determine how I vote in the general ;-)