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Posted on 09/06/2007 2:15:33 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Many GOP leaders likely breathed a sigh of relief when the Senate immigration reform bill collapsed a couple months ago – offering political cover from proposals that threatened to shatter their party's unity. And at a time when campaigning for the presidential primary was ramping up.
But while Congress has taken a hiatus from active immigration reform, GOP legislators who supported the Senate bill are still being assailed by constituents, and state-level anti-immigration legislation has been popping up across the country since the bill failed. Many observers think John McCain's advocacy of the bill is significantly responsible for his plummet in national polls. And other GOP contenders are using the immigration issue against each other: Mitt Romney charging Rudy Giuliani with being soft on illegal immigration, for example.
The backlash underscores how chronic a problem immigration is for the GOP – one that is likely to gnaw at the party throughout the primaries. Misunderstanding its seriousness could have far-reaching consequences, so GOP supporters should look carefully at California. What's happening on the national level may very well have been foretold here.
Nearly a decade of state polling reveals the current round of concern over immigration, especially among the GOP, began to stir in California in October 2003, and has become more intense over the past three-and-a-half years.
In 18 Statewide Surveys conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California between January 2000 and October 2003, the share of Californians who identified immigration as the state's most important issue never reached 5 percent among Democrats or 8 percent among Republicans. But by the beginning of 2004, the percentage of Republicans who were calling immigration the most important issue had climbed to 12 percent.
At the same time, Democratic interest barely budged. Throughout 2004 and 2005, an average of 4 percent of Democrats identified immigration as California's most important problem, compared with 14 percent of Republicans. By the end of 2005, over a fifth (22 percent) of the state's Republicans considered immigration to be the state's most important issue.
What changed for Republicans in October 2003? Renewed interest among Republicans coincided with the recall of then-Gov. Gray Davis. In September 2003, the recall battle was climaxing – and Davis sought to save his position by reversing his longtime opposition to granting driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. The issue of immigration suddenly gained new focus, especially among Republicans. The issue ricocheted around the state even after Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed a proposal that would have granted driver licenses to illegal immigrants.
In December 2005, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Sensenbrenner bill, considered by many to be the most Draconian anti-immigration bill in nearly a century, and pro-immigrant rallies sprang up across the nation.
By this time, PPIC surveys revealed a clear trend: Growing numbers of non-Hispanic white Republican Californians believed immigration to be the state's most important issue. By April 2006, more than 44 percent of California's Republicans concurred, compared with only 23 percent of non-Hispanic white Democrats.
During the heated struggle over the recent Senate bill, 33 percent of California's non-Hispanic white Republicans said immigration was the state's most important issue, compared with just 11 percent of non-Hispanic white Democrats. And since the Senate bill's demise, pressure hasn't lessened, but grown on the leading contenders for the party's presidential nomination to adopt the views of the GOP base.
The question is can a Republican contender, so hemmed in, appeal to a national electorate without lethally undermining support from the base? Immigration is a corrosive wedge issue among Republicans – while Democrats' disagreements are quibbles in comparison. This is a dangerous conundrum for Republican leaders as a national election looms.
bttt
>>The question is can a Republican contender, so hemmed in, appeal to a national electorate without lethally undermining support from the base? Immigration is a corrosive wedge issue among Republicans – while Democrats’ disagreements are quibbles in comparison. This is a dangerous conundrum for Republican leaders as a national election looms.<<
“Hemmed in?” “Immigration is a corrosive wedge issue...” A somewhat one-sided article, claiming that if you are opposed to illegal immigration you can’t win in the general election. I think the author is wrong, but we can’t ignore the MSM’s power to deceive and hypnotize the masses. It will definitely take some work to get good people elected in 2008.
With strict workplace enforcement, they will be out of work.
When we cut off the Federal handouts, they’ll self deport.
Hopefully they’ll go home and make some much needed changes in their own governments.
Do you know what? A couple of years ago I probably would have paid you no mind but your dead on. Something simple but disturning turned me on to this problem and got me thinking. I was on business and it was late. I was in MA and stopped for a couple of burgers at MacDonald’s. The drive in women could not understand my order because I asked for pickles and onions with Big Mac sauce. She no speaka english! I drove off furious and stopped an hour later in CT off 95. I thought, this will be fine I am sure they speak english here. Boy was I wrong. It was like walking into a cafe in Tijuanna. Spanish music, pinatas and no speaka english. I told them in Spanish to learn English and you’ll make more money. These people are so disrespectful to our culture they won’t even bother learning our friggin language! Then they get hand outs equally $30,000 a year and still scream for more entitlements. Why are they dumping in your bushes? Because even when arrested they are simply set free. Just disgusting but yes, We the People will do something about it and I have already begun to do my share and just warming up :)
>>After securing the borders, what do you propose that we do with the 12 million illegal aliens presently living and working in this country?<<
Well, it will take more than just “securing the borders.” There are only 2,000 ICE agents vs. probably at least 20 million illegals, so an increase to about 10,000 ICE agents would be an improvement, plus effective employment enforcement.
After those are truly under control, we still should not offer an amnesty like the one proposed in the senate this year, with no background checks, allowing gang members to apply for citizenship. Also, illegals who are are taking more than they are contributing should go home.
What about illegals who have used legal residents’ SS numbers? Would you kick them out?
“Mexico does not end at its borders. ... Where there is a Mexican, there is Mexico.”
Why, that's just WONDERFUL! /sarc
Sheesh, the nerve of some of these GOP-bots.
Ho Slap.
Why, Duncan Hunter, in a one-on-one TV debate with Hilary Clinton, would kick her (political) arse to kingdom-come. I could evision him walking all over here in circles, she would probably have a nervous breakdown in the process.
The other GOP candidates, mostly the establishmment and media's top choices, would be "too gentleman" to deal with America's enemies in that fashion. Too benevolent for my liking and for what's at stake for the Republic.
It's called "waking up".
Wow. We have a WINNER!!! Ding ding ding ding ding!
Keep them illegal, crack down on illegal employment, deport those arrested, cut off benefits, and count on attrition.
Tagging is urban terrorism.
Offer anyone who leaves voluntarily the chance to apply to return legally in the future.
After that, anyone caught will be fingerprinted and NEVER allowed to enter the country again.
Enforce the law, tax the remittances, jail those using false papers.
They’ll leave.
That is incredible!
No way we are that stupid.
There's a tremendous number of Salvadorans and Hondurans in this area ~ all here in parole ~ which is a sort of legal status.
A single federal judge is responsible for this.
Dichondria lawns are beautiful, but they require a lot of care. The rest of us do without them.
Did you have some other idea?
ping
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