And what you point out is exactly why I labeled my post as only the facts of which I was aware. 6 months ago all primaries were a go based on ‘04 timetables. Neither Fred I believe, nor myself I am sure, had any knowledge of this fiasco of musical primaries.
6 months ago, maybe not. But he surely knew what was happening two months ago. Fred made his call around the 4th of July not to announce. That has brought him some benefits and some penalties. He got free publicity. He lost the time for formal fundraising, advertising, and ground organization that was not allowed under "exploratory" status.
Now, he gets to see if he guessed right.
The way I see it, Romney is playing an "early state" strategy, trying to win big in the first few and build momentum. Rudy is looking at the big states of Super Tuesday, with liberal wing powerhouses of NY and CA. Thompson's best shot for early wins seems to be the South. The question is, will it be a two candidate or a three candidate race after Feb. 5?
One wild card is FL, where Romney and Thompson are within the margin of error of each other, and Guiliani in the lead (15, 17, and 30%, IIRC). If FL is penalized half its delegates for moving up its primary, from 114 to 57, that throws a wrench into the whole calculus.
As it is, a candidate needs 1259 delegates. By Feb. 5, at least 1299 will be assigned.