Sorry, but "...the facts are, as I have indicated from the start..." did not include air-to-air refueling capability of Hugo's air force. That was brought up later. This began with your 102 post: "If we do not provide that help, then the UK, IMHO, in either case, would not be able to get past Venesuela on the way down to the Falklands."
Had you said instead: "If we do not provide that help, then the UK, IMHO, in either case, would not be able to get past air-to-air refueled Venezuelan SU-30s on the way down to the Falklands." there would not have been any comment by myself.
Matter of fact, "air-to-air refuelling" was not mentioned in the Times article and was first mentioned in this thread by britemp on post 144 in reference to RAF Typhoons flying to Ascension Island.
This will be my final comment on this matter and the last time I shall join any of Jeff Head's threads as he makes it clear you must either telepathically toe his line of thinking or not be in the approved loop...
When all this began, there had not been any mention of the Venezuelan Air Force air-to-air refueling asset. Only the 24 SU-30MK Chavez had purchased and their taking on a hypothetical British Naval Task Force on the way to the Falklands.
My reply was to the extent that any British Task Force would not pass anywhere close enough to Venezuela for the SU-30s to attack unless it was suicide flights.
It was said that the Brits were passing east of Hugoland, so they were in danger. Bringing air-to-air refueling into the conversation at this point makes that in the realm of possibility. Yet it could also be said with air-to-air refueling suddenly in the equation, Hugo’s air force could attack the Brit Task Force while it passed through the Suez Canal! Or as they rounded the Cape of Good Hope! Or even in the Thames as they gear up to leave...
My attempts at googling the following info is not the final authority, but it is the best I have been able to find at:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_Air_Force http://www.scramble.nl/ve.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/venezuela/airforce.htm
The best out-and-back range of the SU-30MK I could find was 3,000 km (1,620 nm). The mention of one KC-135 airtanker for Hugo’s air force comes from Jeff Head, my looking only gives mention of one 707 and mention of six C-130 transports and no mention of any of them having an air-to-air refueling ability.
Hypothetically we have a British Task Force leaving the UK and heading down to Ascension Island. Knowing of Hugo’s threat, they keep as close to the cost of Africa as possible to make their distance from Venezuela around 2,900 miles.
The art and ability to send out a bombing force to that range takes a great deal of assets and professionalism even with the USAF who train for this each and every day. To give that capability to Hugo’s air force with a single KC-135 type tanker, only 10 SU-30MK on hand today and 14 more expected in 2008 is a fantasy. No amount of money or hardware can instantly make a formidable force to fly out, attack an opposing naval fleet and expect to do significant damage and return the majority of your attack air craft. It take training over and over again a long time to be proficient in this.
Perhaps in a year or two if Hugo bought more airtankers and trained the devil out of his SU-30s, they may have a chance.
Now, tracking this fleet would fall to Russian spy satellites and the info passed on to Hugo.
So, given all this hypothetical hardware, training and tracking, I will admit it is a slim possibility Hugo’s air force could take on the attack mission and make the Brits turn back as Jeff Head said in his humble opinion.
Yet, as it has been pointed out I clearly do not fathom the geographic situation and do not grasp the military situation, so I say, Jeff, go ahead (pun intended) and be the only one with any grasp of any hypothetical geographic/political/military situation any where, any place, any time...
You have taken one who once considered you a colleague, a friend, and, in short order, have stripped away any and all friendship and collegiality from them...
You, sir, may have floor for eternity and I say good bye and good riddance!
Me, I'm just worried by (1) what Chazev will actually use his new forces for, which doesn't have anything to do with your hypothetical and (2) the lamentable draw-down of the royal navy, which was once a serious force for good in the world - and is now mostly a museum.
As I said earlier, for whatever it is worth, and for whatever part I had in the misunderstanding, I apologize and wish you the best in any case.
“..the Venezuelan Air Force air-to-air refueling asset..”
There is a flying Citgo station?