Posted on 08/25/2007 7:28:43 AM PDT by Hydroshock
Good lord. These people never stop, do they?
Under Clinton you would hear so so economic data, such as job numbers that were worst then anything under Bush, and the writers would be orgasmic about how great the improvement was over what had been expected and how it all had to do with Clinton.
Now compare that to the coverage under both Reagan and Bush 2. You have truly great economic data released and all the “news” media does is feverishly spin and go into hysterics about how the good news really isn’t good news and disaster is just around the corner.
What difference does it make? Global warming and Chinese merchandise are going to kill us all anyway.
Not only that, but they also cover the sports desk.
A Letter To Chairman Bernanke Author: Jim Sinclair
Blockquote>Dear Chairman Bernanke,
This is a problem based on the revelation that over the counter derivatives on credit and defaults are:
Without regulation.
Without listing on public exchanges. Without standards.
Therefore not in the least bit transparent.
Therefore without an open market of the bid/ask type.
Dealt in by private treaty negotiations. Without a clearinghouse.
Unfunded without financial guarantee of any kind. Functioning as contracts of specific performance.
Financial character or ability to perform is totally dependent on the balance sheet of the loser in the arrangement.
Evaluated by computer assumptions made by geek, non market experienced mathematicians who assume religiously that all markets return to their normal relationships regardless of disruptions.
Now in the credit and default category alone considered by accepted authorities as totaling more than USD$20 trillion in notional value.
Notional value becomes real value when the agreement is forced to find a real market for ending the obligation which is how one says sell it.
Interest rate adjustment will not replace the necessary act of providing liquidity in proportion to the problem. When the Fed was initiated, its prime legal directive was to provide liquidity in periods of disruptive credit problems.
Adjustments of interest rates can only hope to hide the problem for a time, causing a global extension of liquidity at unprecedented levels. Good luck, but your academic approach is unlikely to do much and will only lose precious time.
Sincerely, Jim Sinclair
Sinclair, is smart, honest and able to see problems before most. The URL for this can be found: HERE.
At least glancing at his efforts and several of his colleagues will help you understand what usually only the professional traders understand.
Please explain a couple of things to me. First let me say I am not in the mood for an argument, I’m looking for answers.
We’re what, 8 or 9 trillion in debt and it seems as if everything for sale in American stores is manufactured in China. One major company after another is being bought out by foreigners who are rolling in cash, or so it seems. We, the federal and state governments, are willing to sell off anything and everything for a few dollars to whomever shows up with cash.
People with large debt loads aren’t financially secure, IMO. America has a large debt load so I don’t feel we are financially secure. I’m probably wrong but that’s how I see it.
I have been hearing the same crap when Reagan was President...
I recall hearing the same crap when Ike was president.
I’ll be very interested to see the August numbers.
I’ve been watching the flow of junk faxes to my office. They seem to be correlated to the general flow of the economy.
In August the junk faxes all but stopped.
It will be interesting to see if there is any validity to my theory.
The current US government debt is quite low in relation to the norms of developed countries and historically. Every country (or nearly so) has a huge debt load and always has.
Its a good thing to have foreigners investing in the US. I have been in countries where they try to keep foreign investment out, for nationalist reasons, and they do badly.
With more justice, as the debt really did increase remarkably fast in Reagans time, but even then the risk was wildly overblown.
The phrase I remember was keeping up with the Joneses...
One question: What is the result for America if we wake up tomorrow to find out that for whatever reason we went to war with China during the night?
So sure, currently we can defeat them. We do and what happens to us when they refuse to trade with us?
There is a lot of info coming out next week and this will be a good test to show if the markets have regained a lasting measure of stability.
America is still the wealthiest nation by far.
Simple, since we are their biggest customer, they will slide into a recession and we will have to buy from elsewhere and all pay a bit more for whatever we buy that used to be from China.
Thanks for your opinion. I’m still waiting for buwayas.
We have a small disruption in sourcing, as production moves to SE Asia, South America, or stays right here. China completely collapses as it loses 30% of it’s GDP.
Understand that the US actually MANUFACTURES 3 times the amount that China does, by value - $2.4 trillion versus $860 billion. And that the amount that we manufacture is GREATER than the entire Chinese GDP (which is around $2.2 trillion).
If trade is halted with China, we’ll go through some pains, but life will carry on. WalMart will get their stuff made in Thailand, Cambodia, India, Brazil. That $700 billion trade deficit will shift elsewhere - it’s 5% of our economy.
For China, though, they lose a full THIRD of their economy. They collapse completely.
Remember, when the US economy has a small hiccup, the rest of the world has a full-body convulsion. Look at what happened in the last few weeks with the “housing crisis”. Our Fed pumps in a few billion and drops rates a touch. Europe has to pump in ten times as much money, and the Asian markets dive 3-5 TIMES as much as the US market.
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