I wouldn't doubt that a civil war breaks out but will be over fairly quickly when Florida's Cuban community mobilizes support for forces of liberty!
What worries me is that the mobilization of the National Guard in Florida may be to stop any attempt to interfere in Cuba's future by Florida's Cubans if they are allowed to act.
If such events developed I would tend to agree with your point of view.
Its as if some sort of secret promise was made (by JFK) back in October 1962 (Cuban Missile Crisis) to protect the governnment in Cuba.
Rest assured. That is ~precisely~ what the mobilization is for. :-(