Draft report logs bleak outlook for Iran

AP on Yahoo ^ | 8/23/07 | Pauline Jelinek and Katherine Shrader - ap

[NormsRevenge]

WASHINGTON - A draft intelligence report on Iran suggests a change in the Tehran regime appears unlikely any time soon despite growing public anger over the country's economic woes, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The report also anticipates little progress in getting Iran to halt its nuclear program or stop supporting militant groups in the region, officials familiar with the draft said on condition of anonymity because the report has not been released.

The latest in a series of reports from the nation's 16 intelligence agencies, the new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran is nearly complete and could be shared with President Bush and other policymakers within weeks, said the officials. One said it is expected to be completed as soon as next week.

It is one of four reports the intelligence community is wrapping up on the Persian Gulf. Two others look at Iran's nuclear program and its military and conventional threat.

And an update on the situation in Iraq was released Thursday.

The report on Iran's political situation looks at issues ranging from the economy to its weapons programs, the officials said.

It says that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will continue in power despite rising discontent with the worsening economy, the officials said.

With the backing of the unelected clerical leadership that controls Iran, hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected on a populist agenda in 2005, promising to bring oil revenues to every family, eradicate poverty and tackle unemployment. His failure to keep those promises has provoked increasingly fierce criticism over recent months from both conservatives and reformists, who point to rising housing, food and oil prices, including the recent decision to ration fuel.

The new intelligence report also says Iran will continue to pursue a nuclear program that the United States and others believe is aimed at developing nuclear weapons, the officials said. Tehran denies that and says the program is for power generation.

Addressing another dispute between Washington and Tehran, the report also says Iran will continue to cause problems in Iraq, the officials said.

The U.S. government alleges that elements of Tehran's military are equipping and training militias involved in sectarian killings, roadside bombings of U.S. troops and other violence in Iraq — allegations that Iran denies.

U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker met in Baghdad early this month with his counterpart from Iran, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, on the subject. Though it was the third round of U.S.-Iranian security talks in just over two months, officials have reported no progress.

U.S. officials and others also have criticized Iran for supplying money and weapons to the Shiite Muslim extremist group Hezbollah, which is on the U.S. government list of terrorist organizations.

The new intelligence estimate foresees that Iran will continue as a main backer of the group, along with Syria, the officials said.

The U.S. broke diplomatic relations with Iran after the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran.

The lingering poor relations have been exacerbated in recent years by rising tensions over Iran's nuclear program and U.S. allegations that Tehran is supporting armed groups in Iraq.

Iran said it had uncovered spy rings organized by the U.S. and its Western allies and has detained a number of Iranian-Americans.

The United States in recent months warned U.S. citizens against traveling to Iran, accusing Islamic authorities there of a "disturbing pattern" of harassment after the detention of a fourth Iranian-American for alleged espionage.

[NormsRevenge]

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev, center, and his visiting Iranian counterpart Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, right, pass by Azerbaijani honor guard during official welcome ceremony in Baku, Tuesday, Aug. 21, 2007. The leaders of Azerbaijan and Iran met Tuesday and stressed solidarity, saying the neighboring nations share converging views and should increase cooperation. The warm words mask tension in Azerbaijan, a predominantly Muslim former Soviet republic that is a secular state, about influence from its larger southern neighbor, an Islamic republic. Azerbaijanis are also concerned about Iran's treatment of its large ethnic Azeri minority.(AP Photo/Oqtay Mamedov)

[Man50D]

It’s not a question of if we go into Iran but When.

[nuconvert]

I could have told them all this

[Orange1998]

It will never happen unless we win Iraq.

[Man50D]

It will never happen unless we win Iraq.

We won. We defeated Hussein.

[Obie Wan]

We won? Did we? Hussein’s been gone for a while now, have we won ???

[Orange1998]

If we won why are we still losing men and women.

[AmericanExceptionalist]

If the US does not take out Iran’s known and suspected nuclear facilities, Israel almost assuredly will. But I would rather the US do the deed. For one thing, we are more capable of doing so effectively. And to demur—and leave it all up to tiny Israel to clean up this mess—would be a huge cop-out, I believe.

[himno hero]

winning in Iraq would be 70 percent easier without Iranian/syrian intervention.

[rockinqsranch]

“If we won why are we still losing men and women.”

Because of Iran.

[doc1019]

But we have yet to defeat sectarianism. And until we do we have not won in Iraq. We are defeating Al-Quadia, but not the sectarianism that is Islam and Iraq and the Middle East in general. Sunnis, Kurds, and Shia will never get along despite the potential for prosperity under democracy.

[BurbankKarl]

I recommend sending my husband over there to uncover the truth...

[the invisib1e hand]

future's so bright I gotta wear shades....

[BurbankKarl]

Last I heard we are letting the French negotiate our surrender.

[StarCMC]

Are these the same people that put out the memo that said it would take weeks/months for us to take Baghdad? Just wondering.

[StarCMC]

Dang. This thread sure pulled in a bunch of happy positive posters!

[Obie Wan]

We might not be HAPPY posters,but we’re kinda realistic !!!

[StarCMC]

LOL. Mmmmmkay. Whatever you call it.

[StarCMC]

You need to get on SandRat’s good news pinglist and maybe you’ll quit being so pessimistic. There’s a heck of a lot of good stuff going on - the media just won’t report it.