Soviet, er...Russian long range aviation isn't so much aimed at coming over here and dropping nuclear weapons on us. (a-la 1960s deterrence). Their long range aviation is more directed at projecting power against what we use to project power - the US Navy. Their long range bombers have traditionally been about anti-shipping roles.
Now yes, they make inviting targets - if you can get to them. Problem is finding them. It is a big ocean, a big sky. With long range standoff weapons they don't have to get inside our defensive envelop. Throw in decoy raids, tankers and escort fighters, etc. etc. The problem is complex, but solvable.
The real gotcha is that sure, you defeat todays attack on the fleet with interceptors (the F-14s would've been great at this, the -18s...hmmm) and knock down most if not all of their ASMs with defensive missile fire and CIWS... But they'll be back tomorrow, and the next day, and all next week. There are a limited number of defensive SAMs in the fleet, and I'm not even sure we can do unrep on the VLS systems. That might be an alongside evolution.
So really, long range bombers, even big, lumbering, many decades old (did someone say B-52?) bombers are a threat given today's standoff weaponry. For example, a single B-52 can release the same ordnance load as 3 WWII B-18 bombers - that is, the same weight in missiles/bombs as the 3 -18s' bomb loads, and the planes too! So don't discount big aircraft and tremendous carrying capacity for weapons.
It'll be very interesting to see just what kinds of aircraft they choose to develop or modify/extend first. Then the real tell will be how they employ them, train, etc. That'll say a lot about intentions.