[Mr. Jeeves]

Rudy might get 5% fewer votes in the South than a more socially conservative candidate. Meaning he will win those states over Hillary 60-40 instead of 65-35. That's the only downside. The upside is that as the nominee Rudy immediately puts New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California in play for the Republicans, forcing Hillary to spend a fortune playing defense in big electoral states which she would otherwise have locked up without much of a fight.

You have to think Electoral College here - the Democratic candidate is in very good shape for 2008 if he or she doesn't have to defend any of the 2004 Kerry states. We are heading straight for the opposite of 2000 - a popular vote win for the Republican as red statesturn out en masse to expresss their disgust for Hillary, coupled with a narrow Electoral loss as Ohio goes Democrat and none of the 2004 Kerry states change hands.

I don't see any of the other Republican candidates taking back even one of those Kerry states - yet people on FR seem to think that because Thompson or Hunter might win some of the Southern states 70-30 they are better candidates. It boggles the mind...unless these people just want to lose honorably and make a statement. Rudy may not get the huge Southern popular vote that someone like Thompson could, but he'll win all of the 2004 Bush states in the South easily - and he has a much better chance to flip some of those Kerry states back to red. A Republican who wants to win must be able to do that.

Rudy is - like GWB, sad to say - essentially a JFK Democrat. But the American public has shown time and time again that they prefer JFK Democrats in the White House - they always vote for the candidate (even Reagan) who looks and sounds more like one.

[commonguymd]

Bush is no Rudy and Rudy is no Bush. Bush is pro-life.

[Politicalmom]

The South isn’t voting for a gun grabbing abortionist.

[Politicalmom]

Let me rephrase that:

Conservatives in the South won’t turn out for a gun grabbing abortionist.

[Ol' Sparky]

Rudy might get 5% fewer votes in the South than a more socially conservative candidate. Meaning he will win those states over Hillary 60-40 instead of 65-35.

Um, five percent less of the vote in Florida swings that state to Hillary. The same is true in states like Iowa, Colorado and Missouri.

And, there isn't any evidence that RINO Rudy can win one blue state.

[CommerceComet]

Rudy is - like GWB, sad to say - essentially a JFK Democrat.

True except on social issues.

I agree with election analysis. Guiliani would be hard to beat in the general election unless Bloomberg enters the race. Bloomberg might attract some moderates who are critical for Guiliani's victory.

There are undoubtedly people on this forum who would rather lose with a rock-ribbed conservative than win with a moderate.