Let me be among the first to call bullsh*t
The key to his would be if the US fills the security void in Basra as the Brits go into their shell. This would be possible if the surge could draw forces from Al Anbar to do the same with leaders in the south. Then kick over Maliki and let the folks representing the new political reality form a new government.
It’d be a nice time for the Sunnis and the Kurds to have a little coup. Maybe al Maliki and al Sadr could become bunk buddies in some Tehran slum.