Posted on 08/03/2007 2:29:53 PM PDT by Sleeping Freeper
Could the turmoil in the markets in the past few weeks be the precursor of a full-blown credit crunch that could force the U.S. and global economies into a recession? Some observers think that the markets are exhibiting classic signs of a so-called "Minsky moment," when overleveraged borrowers must finally pay the piper for their euphoria. The result, they say, will be a credit shortage that could bring down even innocent bystanders in their wake. Academics, economists and money managers are all sounding the alarm. Financial markets are counting on the Federal Reserve to drop interest rates to cushion the fall, and yet senior officials at the central bank have insisted that the markets must discipline themselves. 'I think the market wants to believe that we're pretty much done with the shakeout.' Paul Nolte, Hinsdale Associates Market professionals seem resigned that the fallout is inevitable, and has already begun with losses in several rocky sessions on Wall Street. "The feeling I have today is that of watching a very slow motion train wreck," wrote Jeremy Grantham, chairman of GMO LLC, which manages about $150 billion in assets. The S&P 500 index is now pricing in a recession starting in late 2007 and lasting for most of 2008, led by the financial sector, said David Bianco, chief equity strategist at UBS. "We believe the market expects this recession to slash S&P 500 [earnings per share] by about 10%," Bianco said.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...
Thanks for the correction, I just remember gas lines and high interest rates. I’m paying 4.6% fixed now. :-)
Actually, I wasn’t correcting you. I thought you were talking mortgage rates; I forget what those rates were during that period. I do, however, remember the prime rate. Carter set an all-time record.
What the hell is the Fed doing then when they announce they are either lowering or raising the Fed rate?
Could it just be that we aren't really living in a free market either?
The outlook for the 08 elections will be pretty bad for Republicans if a recession occurs. The Dems will pound it day and night. Of course, there will be an upside. We’ll stop hearing the daily attacks on our soliers in Iraq since the Dems will have a new and better bauble.
“It was 17%+ in the Jim Bo Carter years...”
Wasn’t that early Reagan years?
It was Carter and Reagan inherited it.
The prime rate, for instance, the bench-mark borrowing rate for corporations, stood at 20% when President Reagan took office. It declined for three months before reaching 17% in April 1981, then suddenly shot up to 20.5% just one month later, only 1 point below the record 21.5% attained during the Carter Administration.
From Time.com
Treasury yields topped out in 1982 then popped again in 84.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=my
Why should chumps have to foot the bill for their own irresponsibility? < /s>
Somehow, I have little sympathy for people who live outside their means. I have even less for people who live outside their means and complain when something goes wrong.
Hopefully, people will learn something from their actions and act responsibly in the future.
This is the beginning of the next depression. Keep in mind the following has been occurring since 2001:
1. High paying professional jobs have been going to outsourcing companies by the millions.
2. Cheap unskilled, uneducated immigrants are flooding our country.
3. Housing prices will be peaking due to numbers 1 and 2 since the middle class is being effectively eliminated.
4. Government is growing and when the Dems gain control in 2008, will take over energy, health care, and transportation industries.
5. Illegals will be given citizenship bringing in another 100M immigrants to be placed on welfare.
6. Oil will peak due to Government interference.
7. Wage and price controls will be instigaged and within 6 months, civil war will break out due to mass starvation.
The prime rate reached its peak of 21.5% December 19th, 1980 while Carter was still in office.
It was 6.25% when Carter took office.
At the end of Reagan’s first term it was 10.5%.
Source: http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/prime.asp
I'll pile on here, too. That wouldn't help the present problem. It's not rates, it's affordability of the principal. It's also the fact that no-doc loans were a bad idea for the liars and their lenders.
Awww ... yer just tryin’ to cheer us up...
Today, "Wall Street plunged anew hurtling the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 280 points after comments from a major investment bank exacerbated the market’s fears of a widening credit crunch." That bank was Bear Stearns who made a public statement that now was the worst fixed income environment in 22 years. That is when Dow went down minus 280.
I've heard that Bear Stearns is a big contributer to Democratic candidates and causes.
Does anyone know if that is true??
I can't imagine who could be stupid enough to keep a running balance on an 18%-20% credit card.
I've got two Master Cards and a Visa all at 8% -9% interest. I barely pay anything in interest.
Naming the price at which they will buy or sell government debt on the open market, and thereby adjusting the money supply in circulation.
While this process is admittedly open to potential abuses that keep conspiracy theorists lying awake nights, it is still a world away from telling a private company what rate they can charge.
-ccm
Great Idea.... Karl...
/sarc/
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