The surge began in May: 121 deaths. June: 98 deaths. July: 71 deaths. 121 to 98 to 71. I believe 98 is 81% of 121 and 71 is 58.7% of 121 and if that is not a “down” trend, I don’t know what is. You cannot compare 2006 casualties to those in 2007 because the operational reality of this year is utterly different than that of last year. We have more troops, the Iraqis are better trained, we have the assistance of tribal leaders where we had none last year, the government is stronger, the insurgents are weaker and have fewer places to hide. And that is why the number of US deaths are down in the past three months. It may be hard to accept, but for right now, we have the upper hand.
The figures I have are slightly different, no matter. 07 May - 126, June 101, July 80; 101/126 = .80, 80/126 = .63 (alternatively, 80/101 = .79). 06 May - 69, June - 61, July - 43; 61/69 = .88, 43/69 = .62 (alternatively, 43/61 = .70). Therefore, for 07: 1.00 - .80 - .63 (.79) vs. 06: 1.00 - .88 - .62 (.70); not much difference in the trends. Furthermore 126/69 = 1.8, 80/61 = 1.7, 80/43 = 1.9. The relative change in the numbers of casualties between surge vs. no surge is unchanged, yet the actual numbers of casualties are almost doubled.