I’m not a statistician either, but it is interesting to attempt to understand data. In answer to your question, July 07’s figure is below the regression line, but well within one standard deviation.
Within a standard deviation? There would be more credibility to your analysis if the data point was within two standard deviations. I' not a statistician but I believe one standard deviation has a 67% confidence interval and two standard deviations has a 95% confidence interval (science uses two standard deviations).