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Iraqi Deaths Spike Five Months Into Surge
Yahoo News ^ | August 1, 2007 | Joseph Krauss

Posted on 08/02/2007 8:13:57 AM PDT by Austin Willard Wright

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To: Tijeras_Slim
whazzit66 vaporized just as I was posting to it.

It got sucked back into the DU Vortex from whence it came.

Hey, did you see where FREERIDERS is being adopted into the official FReeper lexicon?

41 posted on 08/02/2007 9:03:25 AM PDT by Allegra (15)
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To: Allegra
Hey, did you see where FREERIDERS is being adopted into the official FReeper lexicon?

Woo Hoo! That'll be something to tell the grandkids... ;)

42 posted on 08/02/2007 9:04:24 AM PDT by Tijeras_Slim
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Not only are the number of US casualties trending downward, but they are lower on a per capita basis given the larger US troop presence and also on a per-mission basis. We’re killing more bad guys, getting more help from the Iraqis themselves and the pacified areas of the country have expanded. That sounds a lot like “winning” to me.


43 posted on 08/02/2007 9:05:21 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (There are two kinds of people: those who get it, and those who need to.)
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To: Fishrrman
Latest polls show dims at 12% to 14% approval... and less Americans claiming they are dims... lowest in 10 years. Some new polls will show support for the War around 50% and climbing.

LLS

44 posted on 08/02/2007 9:05:43 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer (Support America, Kill terrorists, Destroy dims!)
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To: All

I believe there has been some question about the veracity of these numbers. There are claims of death totals by ministries whose funding is determined by those numbers, but no independent verification of them.

Perhaps far more subtle is these numbers are “throughout Iraq” and the surge’s profound success has been found where it was focused — in Baghdad.


45 posted on 08/02/2007 9:07:55 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Austin Willard Wright
Different numbers here
46 posted on 08/02/2007 9:11:22 AM PDT by kabar
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To: andy58-in-nh
The hypocrisy of the media whining about civilian deaths...they never did when Saddam was in power so why now? Oops, how silly of me...of course I think we all know why.
47 posted on 08/02/2007 9:29:49 AM PDT by never4get
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To: andy58-in-nh
“Not only are the number of US casualties trending downward...”

They are not. A regression line of the data beginning in March 03 through July 07 shows a slope of .7525 and an R^2 value of .1871. With a sample population of over 30, these values are significant. Another item that could be addressed are the number of July casualties, although (as correctly stated) they are the lowest in 7 months (in three cases by 1 and in one case by 2) they are significantly higher than in any other July: 07 = 80, 06 = 43, 05 = 54, 04 = 54. 03 = 48; approximately 1.5 times the next highest July.

48 posted on 08/02/2007 9:29:58 AM PDT by stormer
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To: never4get

The media do not care about any people’s suffering anywhere except insofar as it can be blamed on America. It’s not so much hypocrisy on their part as it is self-loathing. The media mob and the Democrats for whom they act as hit men are invested not only in American defeat, but in its disgrace and embarrassment, too.


49 posted on 08/02/2007 9:40:29 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (There are two kinds of people: those who get it, and those who need to.)
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To: DCPatriot
I think that is a good point becuase the alleged "civilian" death count obviously includes terrorists and militia that is not in the Iraqi military.

I other words, this higher count might just reflect the defeat, by death and casualty, of the terrorists and those trying to destroy the Iraq government.

50 posted on 08/02/2007 9:44:05 AM PDT by KC Burke (Men of intemperate minds can never be free...their passions forge their fetters.)
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To: Huck

Define “civilian.”
I am sure that whoever wrote this story includes dead terrorists as “civilians” - a reason for cheering, not weeping as the headline implies.
Terrorists do not wear uniforms, yet they are combatants. One of the main problems in this war is that it is impossible to distinguish combatants from civilians.
The press is turning this problem into another fake statistic to use in their anti-war, anti-US troops jihad.
I am sure the terrorists’ PR people are very happy.


51 posted on 08/02/2007 9:49:28 AM PDT by Shazolene
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To: stormer
By your methodology, if you performed a linear regression on the monthly deaths from WWII from 1941 to 1946, there would be a positive trend (upward slope) in 1946 after the war had ended. You can not detect a recent trend by inclusion of data from 4 years ago. Certainly, there is insufficient data to demonstrate a recent downward trend and I don't need to perform a spreadsheet statistical analysis to come to that conclusion.
52 posted on 08/02/2007 10:05:23 AM PDT by wfu_deacons
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To: wfu_deacons

You are correct. However, the upward trend is even more pronounced if only one year’s data is used.


53 posted on 08/02/2007 10:14:15 AM PDT by stormer
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To: SteveMcKing
The war will have as little effect in 2008 as in either of those elections.

Then I suggest youre misreading the population that lives between the 2 coasts (this is not 2004 anymore) The average guy is SICK to death with whats going on over there; the same rancid headline day after endless day. He (she) is going to vote for change, even if its the demonic Hitlery, and they feel instant buyer's remorse... BTW, thats no matter what the polls tell you in October '08, because they will be WRONG.

54 posted on 08/02/2007 10:17:01 AM PDT by Nonstatist
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To: stormer
You can detect a "recent" trend by linear regression of data that is even a year old. I'm not a statistician but you may be able to make the scientific statement that the single month of data falls in (or outside) two standard deviations of the last year's data (i.e. is consistent with or not consistent with) the historical data. Tell me, did the data point for July 2007 fall above or below the regression line?
55 posted on 08/02/2007 10:34:27 AM PDT by wfu_deacons
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To: Nonstatist
Yes I agree. Republicans are likely to lose even bigger in '08 unless we change our war strategy.

No matter on whether President Bush and the Congress was right to authorize to use force in Iraq to remove Saddam from power, what happened was that we messed up the occupation.

In a way, we would had been better off if we left Iraq in May '03, and we simply kept our forces on alert in Kuwait.

56 posted on 08/02/2007 10:37:53 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: stormer
Your analysis is mathematically correct, but meaningless. What was happening in Iraq four years ago bears absolutely no resemblance or relevance to what is going on now. Force levels, weapons, training, strategy, tactics, and operational realities have all shifted significantly, as have counterforce levels and operations. Casualties, being a product of all of these things cannot be understood solely by quantitative analysis.

The reason that US casualties is down between May of this year and today has little, if any, correlation with past history and everything to do with the military elements of the surge. A historical example will suffice: US military casualties were far higher in the European Theatre of Operations in 1944 than they were in 1943, and much higher than in 1942, trending upward beginning in June '44 and continuing upward through January/February of 1945. We must have been losing the war, right?

57 posted on 08/02/2007 10:45:26 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (There are two kinds of people: those who get it, and those who need to.)
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To: andy58-in-nh
You are right in that where we have heavy troop presence in an area, we are winning. But the problem is that the Insurgents can simply retreat to another area and cause chaos.

General Petarus do not have enough troops to get the job done. He needs at least 200,000 more troops if we want to completly pacify Iraq. Right now, all we are doing is making sure that the dam doesn't break but in the long term, it is not a feasible strategy.

58 posted on 08/02/2007 10:46:07 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: wfu_deacons

I’m not a statistician either, but it is interesting to attempt to understand data. In answer to your question, July 07’s figure is below the regression line, but well within one standard deviation.


59 posted on 08/02/2007 10:47:35 AM PDT by stormer
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To: andy58-in-nh
You are right in that where we have heavy troop presence in an area, we are winning. But the problem is that the Insurgents can simply retreat to another area and cause chaos.

General Petarus do not have enough troops to get the job done. He needs at least 200,000 more troops if we want to completly pacify Iraq. Right now, all we are doing is making sure that the dam doesn't break but in the long term, it is not a feasible strategy.

60 posted on 08/02/2007 10:58:37 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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