Very bad, unless it leads to greater share of power.
This can be said to be a direct result of our STUPID Bush/Rumsfeld/”neo-con” policy of breaking down the Baath/Sunni powers in Iraq and tilting the tables into the lap of the Iran-backed Shiites.
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
I hope we get a sensible administration some day, before it is too late.
You are right on the mark, Sir! An awesome mistake and here are my thoughts on it:
Assuming we're not there and looking at the map, Iran will swallow Iraq whole, with Moqtada al Sadr at the helm, and will link up with Syria. The Kurdish North will try to circle the wagons around Kirkuk, grab the oil facilities and declare independence. Once the Kurds "attempt" such a defensive, independent move, hell will break loose. Turkey will invade from the north, slaughter the Kurds and grab the oil facilities, a prize they have been dreaming about for decades.
The above scenario is very dangerous to Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia who will not sit around and let it happen. They will protect the Sunnis no matter what with help from Egypt and the Gulf States and will try to defend themselves from their own insurgents who will be backed by Iranian troops on their borders.
With the ME oil supplies threatened, a regional war starting and the eventual invasion of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, we'll have to go back, no matter what Administration is in power. Judging by the first Gulf War, we may need to send 1/2 a million troops that we don't have plus the usual Air and Naval Assets. IOW, a disastrous outcome.
We go back to the question of whether the Sunni block resigning from the Iraqi Government is good or bad. 1- If it causes the Iraqi government to fall it'll be good for us because we can declare Marshall Law, bring a Sunni general, yes, a strongman, to lead for a transitional period and arm the Sunnis to protect themselves and balance the Shia power. After all, the Sunnis are the ones who are helping themselves and us in finishing al Qaeda off.
Meanwhile, we've got to bomb Iranian nukes, military infrastructure and their supply routes into Iraq. That will allow us to go after al Sadr and his militias.
2- If the Iraqi Government doesn't legally fall, it will no longer be a legitimate government and new elections without Sunni participation won't do any good. Therefore, back to 1-.
With Iran at war with us and no military retaliation from our side, we can kiss Iraq goodbye or we'll have to stay there forever, unless, of course, the DUmmies are successful in forcing a defeat upon us. If they do, do you think that they will try to go back to fight Shia forces in the ME under an Iranian nuclear umbrella? No way Jose!
No matter how you feel about President Bush and the mistakes that were made, he is the best chance we have for victory and he's our CIC in a time of war.