Analysis: Fred Thompson Faces Few Bumps

Republican Fred Thompson has faced a series of bumps in his preliminary campaign, casting doubt on the strength of his would-be candidacy and raising questions about his potential for success.

Despite the difficulties, the "Law & Order" actor and former Tennessee senator continues to post strong marks in national surveys and early primary state polls five months before voting begins. But his transformation from a man simply flirting with a bid to one on the brink of an official candidacy has been far from smooth the past few months.

His challenge: living up to the hopes of dispirited Republicans searching for a conservative to rally around in the wide-open race.

"The expectation levels are sky high right now, so that means if you don't meet them financially, you don't meet them organizationally and you don't meet them message-wise, you're in trouble," said Joe Gaylord, a Republican consultant close to former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who also may enter the GOP race.

With so many, including the Fox All Stars tonight, professing Fred’s early demise, let me share with you a bit of History that I found. Read below and learn how History can repeat itself. Seems there are more than just a few things Fred and Ronaldo Maximus have in common!

LLS

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2007/7/11/the-implosion-of-the-mccain-campaign.html

Michael Barrone

“Ronald Reagan fired his divisive campaign manager John Sears after winning the New Hampshire primary in 1980 and still won the Republican nomination and the general election.”

Brad Warthen’s Blog

TheStatecomAbout Brad Warthen’s Blog

http://blogs.thestate.com/bradwarthensblog/2007/07/mccain-2008reag.html

CAMPAIGN SHAKE-UP

During 1980 Campaign, Reagan “Had To Overcome Doubts About His Age And Ability, An Ill-Advised Iowa Strategy, A Major Staff Shake-Up In The Middle Of The Campaign And Serious Money Problems.” “It is true that Reagan entered the campaign with enormous assets. … But Reagan had to overcome doubts about his age and ability, an ill-advised Iowa strategy, a major staff shake-up in the middle of the campaign and serious money problems.” (Lou Cannon, “Reagan: Iowa Loss Allowed Him To Campaign His Way,” The Washington Post, 6/1/80)

“The Shake-Up Of His Campaign Staff” Seen As Contributing Factor To Reagan’s Primary Victory. “The shake-up of his campaign staff and his more personal style of campaigning have contributed to Reagan’s commanding lead for the Republican nomination. To William J. Casey, Ronald Reagan’s reconstructed campaign proves that even in election politics, one can ‘make a virtue out of necessity.’ … Casey … was referring to the recent radical changes in the former California governor’s campaign strategy and staff operations.” (Dom Bonafede, “The ‘Liberation’ Of Ronald Reagan – A New Staff And A New Strategy,” National Journal, 3/22/80)

Reagan Struggled With Early Fundraising

In July 1979, Fundraising Reports Placed Reagan Fourth Among Republican Presidential Candidates, While First In Spending. “Ronald Reagan, regarded as a leading candidate for the 1980 Republican presidential nomination, is trailing other GOP candidates in financial contributions this year, according to federal reports. The Federal Election Commission said Wednesday that Reagan’s campaign committee has reported $1.4 million in contributions so far this year. That compares with these other GOP presidential contenders and the funds they have reported raising: Rep. Philip M. Crane of Illinois, $2.5 million. Former Texas Gov. John Connally, $2.2 million. Former CIA Director George Bush, $1.5 million. … And although Reagan wasn’t the leading fund-raiser, he was the biggest spender, using nearly $1.3 million of the $1.4 million he raised.” (“Washington Dateline,” The Associated Press, 7/19/79)

· “While It Has A $121,000 Cash Surplus, According To The Latest Campaign Finance Reports, The Reagan Campaign Committee Has $141,741 In Debts And Obligations, Much Of It Owed To A West Coast Direct Mail Firm.” (Fred Barbash, “Reagan Raises $1.4 Million In Campaign Funds,” The Washington Post, 7/26/79)

In August 1979, “[L]yn Nofziger, A Longtime Reagan Aide, Was Removed As Finance Director.” (Bill Peterson, “Specter of Kennedy Casts Shadow On GOP Politics,” The Washington Post, 9/23/79)

By September Of 1979, Reagan’s Campaign Was $500,000 In Debt. “The only serious weakness in the Reagan effort is fund raising. In late August, the campaign found itself almost $500,000 in debt …” (Bill Peterson, “Specter of Kennedy Casts Shadow On GOP Politics,” The Washington Post, 9/23/79)

In January 1980, Reagan’s Campaign Abandoned Plans To Run The Campaign Without Federal Matching Funds And The Corresponding Spending Limits, After Coming To The “[R]ealization That Its Fundraisers Could Not Gather Enough Contributions To Run The Campaign Without Federal Money …” “Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign yesterday accepted a federal check for $100,000, ending weeks of internal debate over whether Reagan should accept federal matching funds and the spending limits that go with them. It was the Reagan campaign’s first such check. Its second will be far larger. … The decision reflects the Reagan campaign’s realization that its fundraisers could not gather enough contributions to run the campaign without federal money, campaign treasurer Bay Buchanan said. ‘Our feeling was, don’t take matching funds until you have to, she said.” (“GOP Chairman Says It’s Time For Debate on U.S. Hostages,” The Washington Post, 1/26/80)

As Voting Period Approached, Reagan Had Staff Shakeup

In Late 1979, Then-Campaign Director John Sears “Eased Out” Group Of Longtime Reagan Advisers, Including Lyn Nofziger And Mike Deaver. “Recently, three of Reagan’s oldest and most conservative advisers – deputy campaign chairmen Lyn Nofziger and Mike Deaver, and issues man Marty Anderson – have been eased out of his campaign by John Sears, the pragmatic chairman. Some Reagan loyalists worry that the changes portend a more moderate campaign tack, thus alienating hardline conservatives.” (“The Bumpy Campaign Trail,” Newsweek, 12/17/79)

Deaver’s Dismissal Left Sears In “Undisputed Control Of The Campaign.” “Three topsiders in Ronald Reagan’s Presidential campaign have been pushed overboard in the last three months … Such fears were given new credence last week when Michael Deaver, a friend and conservative adviser to Reagan for fourteen years, was forced out of the campaign because he had been operating outside the chain of command of manager John Sears, who now stands in undisputed control of the campaign.” (Dennis Williams, “Reagan’s Campaign Shake-Up,” Newsweek, 12/10/79)

After Losing Iowa Caucuses, Reagan Fired Campaign Manager And Entire Top Layer Of Political Aides

1980: After Losing Iowa Caucuses, Then-Gov. Ronald Reagan Vowed – According To A Campaign Aide – “There’s Going To Be Some Changes.” “As Ronald Reagan sees it, the seeds of his victory in the Republican presidential contest were sown in the dark hours of defeat after the Iowa precinct caucuses last Jan. 21. … Chief of staff Edwin Meese recalls Reagan saying grimly to him the same night, ‘There’s going to be some changes.’” (Lou Cannon, “Reagan: Iowa Loss Allowed Him To Campaign His Way,” The Washington Post, 6/1/80)

On Day Of New Hampshire Primary, Reagan Dismissed Campaign Manager, Political Director And Press Secretary. “Feb. 26, New Hampshire – Reagan defeats Bush nearly 2 to 1 and regains his status as front-runner. The afternoon of his victory he fires Sears, political director Charles Black and press secretary Jim Lake in a shakeup that in effect restored Reagan as head of his own campaign. Former Securities and Exchange Commission chairman William J. Casey is brought in as campaign director and Meese, whose Sears’ attempt to fire triggered the timing of his own dismissal, becomes chief of staff.” (Lou Cannon, “Reagan: Iowa Loss Allowed Him To Campaign His Way,” The Washington Post, 6/1/80)

Dismissal Of Sears Triggered “Massive Housecleaning Of The Reagan Operation. “Sears, the campaign’s executive vice chairman and chief strategist until he was fired on Feb. 26, antagonized many of Reagan’s conservative backers and California friends by attempting to package the candidate in too moderate a guise and devising his unsuccessful low profile Iowa campaign. … On the day of the primary, Sears was summarily fired, along with two of his closest associates … Several other campaign aides aligned with Sears also left, either voluntarily or by request, in what amounted to a massive housecleaning of the Reagan operation.” (Dom Bonafede, “The ‘Liberation’ Of Ronald Reagan – A New Staff And A New Strategy,” National Journal, 3/22/80)

· Dismissed Reagan Staffer: “We Had No Idea … That This Was Going To Happen.” “A member of Reagan’s Washington office, who was among those let go, said the dismissals came as a surprise. ‘We knew there was contention, but we had no idea how bad it was or that this was going to happen.’” (Dom Bonafede, “The ‘Liberation’ Of Ronald Reagan – A New Staff And A New Strategy,” National Journal, 3/22/80)

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