Most likely we would have ended up a looser based union with two nations. I like to think, unlike Harry Turtledove who takes some major leaps IMO, that we would have stayed out of WWI and much of what came from that (Mideast, communism, nazism, etc) would not have been the problem that it was.
Probably the CSA would have started much as these original USA did, and then morphed into a lesser centralized USA over time. As for line, I'm 8th generation North Carolina for the most part (well except for 10 years where an ancestor must have got lost and stayed in PA at the start) and part Cherokee.
Looking at the amount of suffering experienced after the war compared to before, I am not so sure the South made the right decision.
Well some of that suffering can be blamed on decisions by the Radical Republicans
The biggest problems I see here now is being caused by the Radical Democrats such as Easley, Hackney, Basnight and a mayor by the name of Meeker. It won't be long before we have lost our electoral votes due to spite from a presidential election 7 years ago.