Posted on 07/29/2007 4:48:58 PM PDT by mdittmar
WASHINGTON: US forces have made significant progress in weakening Al Qaeda in Iraq, but it is not yet clear whether that will have a lasting impact on the broader sectarian conflict there, US analysts say.
In what may be the most far reaching development, Sunni tribal leaders and some insurgent groups have sided with US forces as they pressed a series of offensives against the Iraq arm of Al Qaeda, known as AQI.
“The Al Qaeda piece is certainly the main bit of good news on the military front, and I think it’s extraordinarily good news,” said Michael O’Hanlon, an analyst at the Brookings Institution.
“And it’s become much more effective because of the collaboration of the Iraqis,” he told AFP.
A longtime observer and critic of the way the war has been run, O’Hanlon returned this week from Iraq impressed by the broad shift in Sunni sentiment against AQI in areas where it once was a dominant force.
“The US military has cultivated magnificent contacts”, he said.
“Although the best catalyst of all may have been Al Qaeda itself, which has been so exceedingly brutal even with its fellow Sunnis that it finally turned them against Al Qaeda”, he added.
The turnaround has been most striking in Sunni communities in western Iraq that have fought the US occupation almost from the start more than four years ago.
Better relations with Sunnis has helped the US military generate better intelligence, recruit local security forces to hold communities after US forces move on, and gain allies who often know the enemy better than the Americans do.
Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno recently pointed out that a Sunni insurgent group, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, tipped US forces attacking AQI’s stronghold in Diyala province to the presence of 148 deeply buried land mines.
“That is significant, and that is worth reaching out to these groups, absolutely worth reaching out to these groups,” he told reporters.
The US military has focused troops recently deployed to Iraq in a new force buildup on AQI because it is believed to be the main source of the massive suicide and car bombings that kept the country in a permanent state of chaos.
US commanders say the AQI leadership has been disrupted by the offensives, and the group is struggling.
But devastating car bombings still routinely rip through Baghdad, killing large numbers of civilians, a nearly daily reminder of the group’s tenacity and resilience.
Its core membership numbers only in the hundreds but it can draw on a pool of several thousand part-time fighters, a US Defence official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Military officials say it is led mainly by a small group of foreign fighters but its rank and file is 95 percent Iraqi.
Still, for all its destructiveness, the Al Qaeda in Iraq group represents only a fraction of the insurgency in Iraq, reportedly accounting for just 15 percent of attacks in the first half of 2007. “There are still huge sectarian problems, and I don’t think we have as good an answer to those”, said O’Hanlon.
“Although we have some short term progress, I don’t think we have a good transition strategy for how the Iraqis can handle it on their own”, he said.
Loren Thompson, a military expert with the Lexington Institute here, said the Sunnis and Shiites may never be reconciled.
“But recognising that sectarian split, there is a special quality to suicide bombers that relatively few people on either side bring to the fight, a sort of crazy brutality that makes it impossible to come up with any stabilization plan that will be a success,” he said.
“This is my oblique way of saying if we can suppress the suicide fanatics, everything else becomes easier.”
“For the first time in years, we are making tangible progress in reducing the violence, and providing a reasonable environment to allow the political leaders to compromise,” he added.
Ping.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it Harry the-surge-has-failed Reid.
Think about this, we were in WWII for 4 years. We lost 290,000 Troops and we won that war. We have a stronger military then we did in WWII, we lost 3,500 Troops in four years in Iraq. And we have Scarry Reid telling people we lost the war.
Good thing he wasn’t around in the 40s, we might be speakin German today. If the American people wish to walk the same path as Scarry Reid, then brush up on your Farsi and/or Arabic.
True. He and his cohorts are shamefully exploiting difficult but not impossible problems for the sake of power only and without any concern for the consequences.
I always hear people say out Troops win wars, not politicians. You keep Politicians in Congress out of the Commander and Chief’s hair and we will win wars. The Commander and Chief is privy to all the Intel, all the members of Congress are not.
The liberals need to stop leaning on their politicians and their politicians need to stop listening to them and do what is right for our Country.
We live in a nuclear age and we can not afford to wait for our enemy to bring the war to us. We debated Iraq before we went. We will have time to debate it when it is over. In the mean time, show some resolve and support our Troops. IF you support our Troops then you support Victory. Our Troops don't fight to lose.
I come across so many people that just repeat the lies of the media. It is unbelievable that anyone can believe today that we have lost in Iraq. These turds in Washington with their thirst for power want us to leave Iraq with our tails between our legs.
Anyone who watches TV today needs to have a deprogramming so they know the real truth about Iraq.
It’s sad that they’re willingly to give into evil in Iraq so they can gain power in the US. That’s one big compromise with the devil.
Start up the 'De-Programming Channel (DPC)'.
I agree that “tough people” last. And on this war, I think President Bush has literally defined the word “tough.” I salute him.
It seems like the sectarian is fading away, a year ago it seemed they where slaughtering busloads of other sects every day it seems a lot better now. Sunnis are now rejecting AQ. I think we need to stay the course now with the surge although I made antiwar statements 2 weeks ago, last week was a rather good week for us.
thxs for sharing it!
As difficult as it is for Freepdom to accept, perception is more important than reality in many cases.
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