China: economic powerhouse, environmentally unsustainable - part one

Online Opinion: Australia's e-journal of social and political debate ^ | 07/25/2007 | Pan Yue - Dep. Dir. China's SEPA

[amchugh]

The model of economic development that we [China] are currently pursuing is unsustainable. Our energy consumption per unit of GDP is seven times that of Japan, six times that of America, and even 2.8 times that of India. China’s labour productivity is less than 10 per cent of the world total, and yet our emissions are over 10 times higher than the global average.

China’s current supplies of energy and natural resources are unsustainable. Soil erosion and water loss mean that in the last 50 years, the area of habitable land has halved. We currently have 45 main sources of minerals, but in 15 years only six will remain. Within five years, 60 per cent of our oil will be imported.

China’s environment is unsustainable. One-third of China's land mass is affected by acid rain. Over 300 million rural residents have no access to clean drinking water. One-third of urban residents breathe heavily polluted air. Thanks to the traditional model of economic development - which is energy intensive, heavily polluting and relies on high levels of consumption - China has become the world's largest consumer of water, largest emitter of waste water and one of the three areas in the world worst affected by acid rain.

[amchugh]

If anyone here has read Navarro's book the coming China wars, I'd be interested in hearing about it.

[raybbr]

There has been a flaw in our thinking: the belief that the economy decides everything. If the economy is booming, we thought, political stability will follow; if the economy is booming, we hoped, people will have enough to eat and live contented lives; if the economy is booming, we believed, there will be money everywhere and materialism will be enough to stave off the looming crises posed by our population, resources, environment, society, economy and culture. But now it seems this will not be enough. When these crises really hit us, a little economic success will not be nearly enough to deal with them.

Pretty good description of what I call "super-capitalism". It will crush everything in its path for the sake of the monetary unit.

[Always Right]

They made the same predictions about the US. We only had a 10 year oil supply back in 1970 and there was no way we could produce enough food.

[amchugh]

True or very false, I’m just amazed that a Chinese political official can be this critical of China’s track record. Is he representing a dissenting faction, or is this an indirect way for the powers that be in China to signal a big shift in economic policy? Especially given the recent economic policy shift regarding export goods.

[Post Toasties]

The author is correct in many regards - the Chinese shouldn’t believe that they can retrace the same dilatory path to environmentalism that the US did, if for no other reason that they would have approximately seven times the population (creating proportionately more pollution in actually less real estate) doing so. Some of the figures given in this article regarding the reduction in arable land are exaggerated hopefully, or China will be in for some really tough times no matter what it does.