[TeddyIke]

But we keep adding a sector to the negative side of the ledger. It really looks to me that housing is going to pull us into a recession. We won’t all be doomed but we are over due and its starting to look like a perfect storm.

Oh, and my housing prediction is -10% over the next 2 years as a nationwide average. And then flat for a couple of years after that. And it will only be that bad if government doesn’t come in and “fix” the mortgage loan process.

[AndyJackson]

It really looks to me that housing is going to pull us into a recession.

Between increases in real estate taxes due to the housing boom, increases in interest rates (I have an ARM but the cap is below the current fixed term rate) and increased energy costs - there is a big segment of the economy that is not getting income from me - adding up to probably close to $800 per month. The extra would have gone to eating out, luxury food and wine, travel, new kitchen appliances, etc. Some local government bureaucrat and some arab oil sheikh has my money instead. It is a large fraction of my total income, everyone must pretty much incur the same things, and therefore it has to be having an impact on the economy.

[coloradan]

It really looks to me that housing is going to pull us into a recession.

That would be totally unexpected, given the inverted yield curve earlier this year. Inverted yield curves have NEVER forecast recessions before!!