Posted on 07/27/2007 8:28:26 AM PDT by Rockitz
Domestic politics in most countries normally are of little interest geopolitically. On the whole this is true of the United States as well. Most political debates are more operatic than meaningful, most political actors are interchangeable and the distinctions between candidates rarely make a difference. The policies they advocate are so transformed by Congress and the Supreme Court -- the checks and balances the Founding Fathers liked so much, coupled with federalism -- that the president rarely decides anything.
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Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns. In other words, policy implications aside, let's treat the election as we might a geopolitical problem, looking for predictive patterns. Let's begin with what we regard as the three rules of American presidential politics since 1960:
The first rule is that no Democrat from outside the old Confederacy has won the White House since John F. Kennedy.
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The second rule is that no Republican has won the White House since Eisenhower who wasn't from one of the two huge Sunbelt states: California or Texas (Eisenhower, though born in Texas, was raised in Kansas).
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The third rule is that no sitting senator has won the presidency since Kennedy.
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That being the case, the Democrats appear poised to commit electoral suicide again, with two northern senators (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) in the lead, and the one southern contender, John Edwards, well back in the race. The Republicans, however, are not able to play to their strength. There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on. Texas right now just doesn't have players ready for the national scene. California does, but Arnold Schwarzenegger is constitutionally ineligible by birth.
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(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...
George can't even follow his own rules to find that Duncan Hunter is the man. He does consider Ron Paul as a potetntial, but doesn't even mention Duncan Hunter.
Duncan Hunter Ping!
***There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on. Texas right now just doesn’t have players ready for the national scene.***
This guy’s a dope.
What about Tom DeLay?
Were he eligible, Arnold would win a decisive victory in the 2008 election, gaining record numbers of minority votes. Of course, he wouldn't really govern as a Republican...but if stopping the Hildebeest is Job One, Arnold would be the man to do it.
Duncan Hunter Ping!
I have put that fact in countless posts on this forum. The reason for that is Americans think the country is on the wrong track and sitting Senators are seen as part of the problem. As far as Duncan Hunter goes, no sitting Representative has been elected since Garfield and the story of how that came about is great story in American political history.
Oh yeah, he plays well nationally. DeLay makes Duncan Hunter look like Winnie the Pooh. ;)
George can't even follow his own rules to find that Duncan Hunter is the man. He does consider Ron Paul as a potetntial, but doesn't even mention Duncan Hunter.No, he just forgot to mention the fourth rule: that no sitting member of the House of Representatives has ever been elected President.
James A. Garfield.
The link doesn’t go to the article?
Don’t know anything about ‘em.
Sheriff Joe.
“There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on.”
So where does thid guy thing Hunter is from, Guam?
“There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on.”
So where does this guy thing Hunter is from, Guam?
“There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on.”
So where does this guy think Hunter is from, Guam?
Sorry for the multi=posts.....need more coffee.
I'd prefer Dewhurst, myself.
Stratfor, is, in all places, Austin.
A gross oversite. Thanks for the PING.
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