Gaming the U.S. Elections

Stratfor ^ | July 26, 2007 | George Friedman

[Rockitz]

Domestic politics in most countries normally are of little interest geopolitically. On the whole this is true of the United States as well. Most political debates are more operatic than meaningful, most political actors are interchangeable and the distinctions between candidates rarely make a difference. The policies they advocate are so transformed by Congress and the Supreme Court -- the checks and balances the Founding Fathers liked so much, coupled with federalism -- that the president rarely decides anything.

snip

Therefore, we need to begin handicapping the presidency as we did in 2004, looking for patterns. In other words, policy implications aside, let's treat the election as we might a geopolitical problem, looking for predictive patterns. Let's begin with what we regard as the three rules of American presidential politics since 1960:

The first rule is that no Democrat from outside the old Confederacy has won the White House since John F. Kennedy.

snip

The second rule is that no Republican has won the White House since Eisenhower who wasn't from one of the two huge Sunbelt states: California or Texas (Eisenhower, though born in Texas, was raised in Kansas).

snip

The third rule is that no sitting senator has won the presidency since Kennedy.

snip

That being the case, the Democrats appear poised to commit electoral suicide again, with two northern senators (Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama) in the lead, and the one southern contender, John Edwards, well back in the race. The Republicans, however, are not able to play to their strength. There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on. Texas right now just doesn't have players ready for the national scene. California does, but Arnold Schwarzenegger is constitutionally ineligible by birth.

snip

[Rockitz]

I got it in a special e-mail from financial adviser, John Mauldin. I didn’t think the Mauldin special would be posted on the internet so I referred to Stratfor. A Stratfor subscription is probably required to get the full text to the article unless you got it free from Mauldin. If you want it I could probably be talked into FReep mailing it to you.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

It’s not that Senators and Representatives are viewed as part of the problem, it’s because they are legislators.

Legislation is built upon the premise of compromise, and most people want to see someone of leadership more than someone who can get things done in a smoky back room.

That is why the vast majority of Presidents have either been Governors, Vice Presidents, or high ranking Generals. Those positions deal with leadership.

Sure you have the odd Garfield or Lincoln, but it is just very uncommon for a non-Governor/former VP to get elected.

[Rockitz]

Actually Garfield was selected to fill the vacant senate seat of Democrat Allen Thurman by the new Republican majority in the Ohio Legislature in 1880, but never took the seat. Instead he beat out hopelessly deadlocked Sherman and Blaine on the 36th ballot at the Republican National Convention to represent the GOP. Garfield was also a Civil War general and GOP floor leader in the House of Representatives.

[no dems]

The Republicans, however, are not able to play to their strength. There are no potential candidates in Texas or California to draw on

Hey, Georgie Boy; ever heard of a great Californian by the name of DUNCAN HUNTER? And if you want a VEEP from Texas, how about Texas Senator John Cornyn?

[RasterMaster]

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