And some pre-race stage analysis compiled from various sources:
Tim Maloney, Cycling News' European Editor:
Friday will be another hot day that starts from Montpellier, capital of the Languedoc-Roussillon region, and another transitional stage as the Tour heads inland from the Mediterranean coast to the textile town of Castres. Although an early break should get away in the flat first half of the stage, a counter-attack on the tough 10.4-kilometres climb of Montée de la Jeante with 60 kilometres to go could be successful.
The Versus crew:
Although the terrain may offer some opportunities for the attackers, the leaders and their teams will have to be particularly attentive in order to favor a sprint at the finish line. Because, the day before the Tour's great time trial, it's out of the question to let anybody take the slightest advantage.
Velonews:
This stage is one that could suit riders who are either defending a break for their team leaders (such as Predictor-Lotto's Horner) or a non-climber trying to get a win for his team before the upcoming time trial and three mountain stages. Riders falling in to this category include Juan Mercado (Agritubel), Alessandro Ballan (Lampre) and Flecha (Rabobank).
Stéphane Goubert of Team Ag2r-Prévoyance:
The main bit of this stage will be the climbing of the Jeante. It is actually the beginning of the Cabaretou pass, except that at 2-3km from the peak you turn left. At the bottom of the pass the road is a very large national road, then you turn left on to a narrow road. As it takes place on the eve of the Albi chrono, this stage is likely to see a long breakaway which could go to the end. The favourites and the time-trial specialists will try to spare themselves. On top of the Jeante there is less than 50km to the finish, on a plateau with inclines and declines. A contestant who attacks at 5km to the top can get ahead enough to impose himself in Castres.
Edward Pickering & Nigel Wynn of Cycling Weekly:
[T]hings get interesting with the crossing of the second category Montee de la Jeante, a 12km climb taking the riders up to almost 1,000 metres. Exactly the kind of energy-sapping day the riders do not want before tomorrow's time trial. Our prediction: Oscar Friere will gain 30 minutes in a break. You can bet your house on that.
“...Oscar Friere will gain 30 minutes in a break.”
At 1h 10’ 58” off the leader I don’t think the peloton would be too interested in chasing him down - it all depends on who goes with him :-).