Too simplistic. Based on past history, they have good reason to believe that military action will force a favorable political result.
But there's more to it than that -- you're operating from conventional logic, whereas that may not apply in this case. You probably need to figure in the militant Islam angle, which is not particularly rational, but is very dynamic.
Syria's motivation to attack would be twofold: first, and probably foremost, is Bashir Assad. He's weak, but wants to be a strongman like his father. Second, Syria is in many respects an Iranian vassal.
I suspect that Iran is de facto calling the shots for the Arabs in the region, and their motivations are at least partly governed by Ahneedajihad's apocalyptic religious beliefs.
Now suppose that Syria really did get Saddam's WMDs. First, Iranian missiles (perhaps tipped by the nukes nobody thinks they have) can supposedly reach Israel. Follow them up with a barrage of chemical weapons from the Syrians... it'd go a long way toward satisfying the ideological goal of destroying Israel.
I seriously doubt that either Egypt or Jordan plan to play in such an attack. They'd probably remain neutral -- I doubt they'd aid Israel directly, but I also doubt they'd attack her.
Which brings us, finally, to Israel. They are a serious nuclear power. An attack such as I described would almost certainly result in the glassification of Amman, Tehran, and a few other locations.
Perhaps the Syrians and Iranians are counting on such a response, as a spur to the rest of the Islamic world for launching a religious war.
Right now Israel has the weakest leadership it’s had ever. I’m sure the muslims are aware of this as well. In any event they (Syria) must realize they would be pummeled by US air attacks as well. I think Iran realizes this and since they are pulling all the strings would have to stage some sort of diversion in Iraq to keep us busy there. This all would have to be extremely coordinated which is why I remain a bit skeptical as well.
I don’t really buy the “let’s sacrifice our countries to further the cause of islam” angle. Sure, Ahamanutjob might think that, but I doubt he has control over any missile launches.
Contrary to a lot of people, I don’t see Assad as downright stupid either. Sure, they have a defense pact with Iran, but if the U.S. or Israel were to smack Iran, I don’t think we’d be seeing any Syrian military operations.
Iran is a power in the region, but they are a limited power at best. Because they don’t have adequate refinement capabilities, they have a shortage of gasoline despite sitting on a buttload of oil. Furthermore, their economy is in the dumps. It takes a lot of money to project your power.
Why would Israel nuke Amman? I realize I’m something of an optimist, but I like to think that the Jordanians (at least the monarchy) are more reasonably folk. After all, didn’t Hussein try and warn Israel before the Yom Kippur War? Also, the fallout might conceivably hit Israel, or, although we’re a ways away, us in Iraq.
Course if the Syrian launch their chemical weapons at Israel, we’d at least get to see the Arrow system in action.
His logic sounds like it is out of a Clinton State Department briefing file. You hit all the reasons that it doesn't compute in the real world.
My first thought when I read the "9th of AV" is the date, several hundred years apart, that a Jewish Temple was destroyed in Jesuralem was.....Ahmadinejad! That's the kind of reasoning a believer in the 12th Imam would use to start the war.
Hopefully, the Israeli military and maybe Bibi Netanyahu have a plan to shuffle Olmert aside as soon as hostilities start. Olmert has no business running a war of survival!!
Finally; I think I remember reading that Assad has threatened to attack by the Fall if Israel doesn't return the Golan by then. Anyone recall that post - If so I'd love a link.