If decision making is predicated on a fact-based examination of available information, yes, I have decided. And I, like most others, believe that those that do not share my beliefs, while not necessarily “stupid”, are wrong.
As far as the probabilities you mentioned, I can tell you that the probability of the first scenario you mentioned (planet perfect distance, etc.) is 1. In your second case (cards thrown off the building), the probability certainly approaches 0.
I am still waiting for the first evolutionary “scientist” to be able to create life with a lightning bolt and a bunch of amino acids. It kinda looks like probability of choice 1 equals 0.