Since when do we believe the polls?
The saving grace for the GOP is the cast of characters the Dems are running. None of them, including the increasingly nutty Al Gore (if he ran) are going to be able to do the Clinton middle of the road thing. They might still win due to depressed GOP turnout and the anti Bush flow of the sentiment, but it won’t be an easy slam dunk.
Of course the GOP is running a Mormon Mass Gov and a former New York Mayor who has a quirky combination of personal issues and views ON the issues...hard sells in the Red States. Thus the Fred dynamic.
Given the fact that the entire 2008 election might very well come down to Ohio yet again, Thompson is the only GOPER who could run the red state table. Guiliani and Romney are a strange mix for the red/blue dynamic. Though Rudy could theoretically do something I don’t think Romney could do, steal a PA, WI, MI, NY, NJ or Cali from the dems. Romney is smooth, I’ll give him that, but the Mormon, Mass and Flipflopper perception is a trifecta he cannot overcome.
I can see Fred being a force in the South and parts of the midwest. Not sure how he will play in PA, MI, Ohio and the like. Though if his opposition is Hillary he could win rather handily. A Rudy v Hillary v Bloomberg race would be the most bizarre and hard to predict IMO.